A rumor seems to have disturbed corridors, offices. It is a rumor that was born, in principle, from the mouths of the main economic figures of the political opposition, who seem to give free rein to the promise to redefine the debt in pesos. Some of that “escaped” a few hours ago from the leader Patricia Bullrich, emerging from a kind of lowering of the line that runs through all of Together for Change. The wave of fear logically reached investors, who see in that political space a certain coherence with respect to what Hernán Lacunza, Macri’s former economy minister, did in a timely manner, when in 2019 he re-profiled debt in pesos, that is, he decided to defer maturities, giving rise to a rare financial warning.
The basic idea that has caught on in the investment species is simple: they understand that, at some point, the exchange rate will have to give way to another morphology, and that as time goes by, it is more likely that this equation will end up solving the next administration. Based on the ideas that are beginning to be known from the mouths of the main candidates for the Economy chair, only by rescheduling debt maturities could the exchange rate be unified immediately.
With this fear of a sudden change, investors have been leaving these bets. There is a lot of data that makes it transparent. One is the sharp drop in the last hours of the investments in pesos. Another, the reduction in the term of placements in pesos to which it is willing to invest. In other words, when the Ministry of Economy wants to finance its expenses or renew part of its debt, it must accommodate those issues to what the market demands. This period fell from an average of 503 days in April, to approximately 300 days in recent weeks. It coincides with the largest falls, which operated precisely in the debt that matures at the end of 2023, the date of the government change.
In the background, there is always the same fear of what the other might think. Who are the ones with the most debt in pesos? Are they institutional investors who are disinvesting? Do you think that you could change the conditions of the Palacio de Hacienda that make them keep those titles in their portfolio? And then, the speculation: that other, it seems, could be thinking that for the Government, (for this one, but also for the next) the accumulated debt issued in pesos is excessive for an elegant and slow solution. Until December 2022, some $3,250,000 million are due. If you add up a few months, let’s say up to August of next year, the maturities are almost $5,700,000 million.
Next week there will be help to understand what’s going on. Next Tuesday the Treasury will auction debt and, perhaps, the investors who have now sold intend to re-enter government debt, but in exchange for higher rates and shorter terms. Or maybe not. There will also be other questions that could be answered. For example, if the pesos that today are in a kind of limbo (those that left the investments, but did not enter the dollar) and those that are the product of the monetary expansion of the BCRA for some $235,000 million in May, find a new refuge in Guzmán’s broadcasts. The blue rose just $2 in the last few hours to $208 and the CCL remains at the $210 line. Nothing makes it seem that this is, for now, the chosen destination.
Source: Ambito
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