Regarding the soaring of the financial dollar, he assured that it was “where it was most reflected the impact of the exit of the pesos that were placed in instruments linked to inflation. The informal dollar market is much smaller in volume because only savers and SMEs operate, if we compare its average price in the last six months was the one that increased the least“.
For its part, the economist Federico Glusteinalso in dialogue with this medium, assured that one of the causes is due to “the negative expectations about the economic future, in which, despite not having enough demand to sustain the rise, the market validates the reactive movement to the jump of the financiers and the eventual receipt in dollars at the end of the month with the Christmas bonus“.
In turn, Glustein, indicated that “the agents observe that despite the high inflation the collapse of CER bonds does not raise, then are willing to pay for coverage in foreign currency more than the value prior to this run” and highlighted that “the blue has a delay in activating because it is a smaller and atomized market, therefore, unless there is an overdemand, it reacts by validating financial market expectations. That’s why the rise of the blue was seen lighter and later than the stock market dollars“.
For the economist, in addition, there are two other underlying reasons. On the one hand, “it is observed that the BCRA does not absorb the dollars that would be required by the international context and there is noise that there could be a lack of foreign currency or even risk more controls by the government, therefore, the reaction of the parallel market is logical”, and on the other, “I think that although it is somewhat marginal, the crypto dollar It is not stable enough to operate a cave, so the blue is a good and safe alternative, but it contributes this to the general rise”.
In his turn, Aldo Abram, Master in Economic Sciences, said, in dialogue with Ámbito, that the causes of the rise in the blue dollar have various reasons: “One of them is that the peso is depreciating. When the peso loses purchasing power, it is immediately noticeable in free exchange rates. That happens with all currencies, when the dollar rises or falls, it is immediately observed against other currencies in the world markets, of course, in the free exchange markets “.
Regarding the loss of purchasing power of the peso, Abram assured that we have “a Central Bank that is issuing even more power to finance the government. And since what is produced from pesos is more than what people demand, its price goes down.” “As people begin to see that each time the peso loses more value, the demand for pesos goes down. Not only does purchasing power drop because supply rises, but also because demand falls,” he explained.
To this, “we must add a saving decision. It is a country that generates more and more uncertainty about its future. Not only for reasons of bad economic policy but also of the internal ones within the alliance that governs “and in the face of this situation, he expressed, “There are more and more people who want to transform their assets in pesos into dollars and that also puts pressure on exchange rates”.
Finally, he elaborated on the world situation. “It is not irrelevant what is happening globally. All this uncertainty that is being experienced and is being suffered in the international markets, enhances the uncertainty in the countries that generate more risk perception. It affects the demand for pesos because we want fewer assets in pesos, it also leads to an aggravation in the loss of the purchasing power of the currency and the search for assets with foreign currency. A combination of things that justify the rise in the exchange rate, “she closed.
Source: Ambito
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