But he is not the only one who thinks so. Rabobank, the Dutch bank believes that, although the US may avoid a recession this 2022 due to the solidity of consumption and investmenta spiral of prices and wages has begun that will be difficult to stop without the Fed leading the US economy into a recession in 2023. “Even if the United States is able to absorb exogenous supply-side shocks, such as the European boycott of Russian oil, these could drag the US economy into recession before the Fed finishes raising rates”, they explained
This is the case of Rabobank, since the Dutch bank believes that, although it is possible for the US to avoid a recession in 2022 due to the solidity of consumption and investment, a spiral of prices and wages has begun that will be difficult to stop without that the Fed pushes the US economy into a recession in 2023. “Even if the US is able to absorb exogenous supply-side shocks, such as the European boycott of Russian crude, they could drag the US economy into recession before the Fed finishes raising rates,” they said.
Blackrock’s latest report, while not mentioning the word “recession,” did indicate that the Fed’s plan “will clearly slow down the economy.” Although Jerome Powell, president of the US central bank, has said that they are not looking for a recession, BlackRock believes that this would be necessary if they want to return to inflation at 2%. “So we expect the Federal Reserve to change course once it becomes clear that growth has stalled,” they said from the US manager.
Pimcothe largest active fixed income manager in the world went further and forecast a “high risk of recession in the next two years” in his analysis of long-term prospects ‘Secular Outlook’. And he added that “the intense attention of central banks in the fight against inflation raises the risk of financial accidents”.
Finally, Citigroup believes that it is increasingly likely that the economy will enter a recession and raised the possibility to 50%. In any case, Citigroup now sees the global economy growing 3% this year and 2.8% in 2023.
Source: Ambito
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