The The parallel dollar had already shot up $8 between Tuesday and Wednesday, with which it accumulated a jump of $10 (+4.6%) throughout the week, the most important since June 2021.
In this way, the exchange gap with the wholesale official exchange rate rose to 81.9%.
With this new development, the informal dollar narrowed the gap that it still maintains against the financial dollars, which operated this Friday between $230 and $235.
What are the causes of the jump of the blue dollar
1. Negative expectations about the economic direction
“The country risk rose 10% these days in response to the fear of the markets due to uncertainty, and the CCL dollar had risen sharply while waiting for possible restrictions on imports”analyzed Federico Glustein in dialogue with Ámbito.
“It is logical that despite the lack of demand that corresponds to the rise in the blue, the parallel currency tends to rise,” he concluded.
Aldo Abraham, an economist at Libertad y Progreso indicated: “The reality is that free dollars are increasing and not only because the Central Bank continues to issue a lot, and therefore causes the purchasing power of the peso to drop and that – as would happen with any currency – is immediately noticeable in free exchange markets.
“This also happens because there is more and more uncertainty, which lowers the demand for pesos. If the demand for a product falls, for example, but the supply remains, there will also be a loss of purchasing power. Here it gets more complicated because not only does demand fall, but supply increases. And that is going to be reflected in the foreign exchange market,” he added.
The economist highlighted another factor that adds to the “combo” that has made the alternative exchange rates rise in recent days: “Because of the uncertainty, people are not only going to escape from the peso, but from every asset that is local. This is also done through the foreign exchange market. Conclusion: this also pushes parallel dollars higher. The uncertainty factor is one of the factors that is causing these exchange rates to grow.”
2. Fear of greater controls?
For her part, Lorena Giorgio, chief economist at Equilibra, commented that “we are seeing a slight convergence of the informal dollar to financial prices, as always happens. We have to wait to see if this punctual rise comes from the hand of a lower supply in the informal market due to greater controls on imports”.
It is worth remembering that until a couple of weeks ago, the informal dollar remained at levels similar to those at the end of 2021 ($208) even with accumulated inflation of 30%. “This was possible due to an offer of dollars in the informal market that came from the different groups of importers,” explained Giorgio.
In turn, he predicted that “if what Vice President Cristina Kirchner asks ends up happening, and the Central Bank gets tough on the sale of foreign currency to import, we could have a lower supply in the informal sector that translates into price.”
3. Seasonality
For Di Giorgio, the advance of the dollar may be a “convergence effect that is also fueled by the seasonality of this time of year, when people have already received the bonus and see that it is a good timing to dollarize,” said the economist. Balance boss.
Blue dollar price in June
So far in June, the blue dollar rises $19, which represents its biggest monthly advance in the year, after ending May at $207.
Let us remember that last month, the informal dollar rose $6.50 or 3.2%, although it was below inflation (a floor of 5% is estimated), and the increase in the official exchange rate (+4.2% ).
The parallel dollar rose 50 cents in April, and dropped $11 in March, its worst performance in 14 months. Last February, it fell $6.50 (-3%), after rising $5 or 2.4% in January.
Blue dollar in the year
So far this year, the informal dollar has advanced $18, after closing 2021 at $208.
During the past year, the blue dollar registered a rise of 25.3% ($42), half compared to the inflation of the period (50.9%). However, it is worth remembering that in 2020 it had shown a sharp jump of 111% (compared to 36% inflation).
What is the blue dollar?
The value of the blue dollar has a substantial difference with the official dollar, which is acquired in banks and has an established price. Its sale is in the informal market, without regulations or limits, and for this reason it is generally operated at a value greater than the official dollar.
Why is it called the blue dollar?
The origin of the blue dollar as a denomination for the operation of the banknote in the informal market is not clear. But there are theories.
An explanation of its name indicates that it is so called because in English, “blue”, in addition to naming the color blue, refers to something “dark”.
Another theory relates it to purchase operations through bonds or shares of companies known as “blue chips”. They also link it to the approximate color that appears when a fibron is applied to detect counterfeit bills.
Price of the savings or tourist dollar
The savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus tax- increased seven cents to $213.10 on average.
More news about the Blue Dollar and the Dollar
Dollar: what price do analysts forecast for the second half
The “gurus” of the city: the list of Argentine economists awarded for their forecasts on the dollar and inflation
The measure requested by Juan Carlos De Pablo to lower the blue dollar to 20 cents
Source: Ambito
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