Although the parallel dollars continue their bullish streak, they are still below the recorded jump in inflation. Since January, the Consumer Price Index grew 29.3%. In that period, the dolar “blue” it went from $206 to $239, which registered a jump of 16.01%. In the case of MEP dollar, jumped from $197 to $243, reflecting an increase of 23.38%. Lastly, the dollar CCL showed a 23% increase from $202 to $250.
In that context, market analysts are constantly evaluating the best tools to prevent investors’ savings from losing to rising prices that by the end of the year could close at 72.6% according to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
Santiago Lopez Alfaropresident and partner of Patent Securities, talked to Ámbito about it and chose CER bonds as the main option for savers. “Today with bonds and bills yielding above inflation, those who have a risk appetite can opt for those options, that is, CER bond bills,” he said.
CER bonds (Reference Stabilization Coefficient) have the advantage of adjusting the capital based on the Consumer Price Index, which runs parallel to inflation. In addition, and the interests that apply are calculated on adjusted balances. In recent weeks, they registered sharp falls that set off alarms in the market and the government accused opposition economists of promoting destabilization.
For López Alfaro, the problem was elsewhere. “It is that there were many people who got into these instruments without knowing what they were buying,” said the economist. And he ratified that today to beat inflation “they are the best instruments”above all – he said – because the fixed-term rate is not enough for a projected inflation of close to 70%.
Lucas Buscaglia, Fixed Income and Macroeconomics Analyst at IOL invested online, agreed that one of the best options is CER bonds. However, he also raised his objections to what happened. “In this context, CER bonds are usually the base option to protect value, but movements in recent weeks have generated a lot of noise in the market”he pointed.
For the specialist, the fall was caused “by the concern about the future of the financing of the national government” in the next year and a half, but he did not hesitate to point out that in his opinion “not that there is a debt problem for the next twelve months”. Specifically, he stated that it is possible “that the market had an overreaction”.
Regarding the recommended instruments, Buscaglia suggested “adding more liquid and short-term bonds with good returns to your portfolio, all until maturity, these being the letters X16G2 and X20E3, and the CER TX23 bond.” The X16G2 yields CER+1.86% to date and the X20E3 yields CER+6.12% to date, while the TX23 bond currently yields CER+9.0%.
In addition, he explained that – based on the assumptions of the REM – the calculation of estimated annual internal rates of return (IRR) “could exceed inflation within twelve months.” The X16G2 could achieve an estimated annual yield of 99%, the X20E3 79.6%, and the TX23 84.3%.
Badlar Bond BDC24
For those who do not suit the CER bonus, the IOL investor online analyst suggested the bonus Badlar BDC24 of the City of Buenos Aires. “This bond pays coupons that are adjusted by Badlar + 3.25%, thus generating high coupons in a context of rising rates. Yield to date (IRR) is 70%, and the estimate stands at 85.4%”plot.
Badlar bonds have the particularity that their capital is adjusted by the rate of fixed terms greater than one million pesos. From IOL Investonline considers that it is an instrument “ideal to replace fixed termsince they usually have an additional rate and greater liquidity”.
Dollar and dollar bonds
On the other hand, the owner of Patent Securities considered as “a good option” to bonds in dollars. “Being at US$20 or US$22, it is a good price. If you think a year from now, those bonds should be worth more than $22,” he said.
As for the dollars as a store of value, in order to protect savings, López Alfaro said that it is likely that both the blue and the financial ones “will continue to rise” taking into account that “they were at zero for the year in which they rose, when inflation was already close to 25 and 30% in the year. They have now risen, although they are still below inflation. Let us remember that last year inflation and financial dollars rose almost the same, a little more than 50%”.
Source: Ambito
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