In this frame, the dollar “counted with liqui” (CCL) -operated with the Global 2030 bond- oscillated ups and downs during the day, but Towards the end of the session, it opted for the upward trend, and rose 0.4% to $251.03, new closing historical nominal record. Thus, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate rose to 100.8%.
Meanwhile, the MEP dollar -also valued with the Global 2030- it increased 1.1% to $245.67. Consequently, the spread with the official exchange rate reached 96.5%.
Thus, the financial exchange rate recorded a rise of almost $14 in just three days, after the recent strengthening of the import exchange trap, which made it possible, on the other hand, for the Central Bank (BCRA) to raise some 560 million dollars this Wednesday, a record purchase in the last five and a half years, to accumulate a favorable balance in the week more than 1,000 million dollars and drag in June acquisitions for about 400 million dollars (from a negative balance of US$189 million). Consequently, the accumulated figure for 2022 was increased to US$1,312 million (still far behind what was acquired in the same period of 2021).
This important balance in favor of the BCRA, unthinkable until a few days ago, added to a rebound in dollar bonds and a greater stabilization of debt in pesos, I could put a temporary roof on it to financial exchange rates, some specialists venture.
They are based, in effect, on signals that showed two other exchange rates CCL, which on this day ended lower. The CCL Senebi fell nearly $1 to close at $251, while the CCL Cedear fell 20 cents to $249.72.
Extra help came from Brazil, since the real appreciated 1.7% near the close to 5.1794 units per dollar, after the plans of the Bolsonaro government to simplify the procedures for the issuance of private bonds became known. in order to stimulate fundraising through capital markets, as well as improve the security of international contracts, an official from the Ministry of Economy told Reuters.
CCL dollar: is it approaching its temporary ceiling or is it going for new highs?
“I think that the CCL began to accommodate this uncertainty that was generated by the BCRA measures and by the eventuality of the fall of the bonds in pesos and the distrust of the market in the Treasury instruments. Although it had a daily rise, I believe that it is finding its transitory balance after two weeks of rally where it rose 19%, much of the increase for the year. In addition, CER bonds traded higher, so there may be a new confidence in that segment, which stabilizes the CCL”, commented the economist Federico Glustein.
However, other analysts are somewhat more skeptical and project that the CCL could go in search of new nominal maximums, in the face of reinforced symptoms of mistrust. “I see the CCL dollar going towards new highs, accelerating especially in the face of political noise that accentuates nervousness, but pushed deep down by the high nominal value of the economy and its imbalances, which continues to activate coverage”commented the economist Gustavo Ber to Ambit.
A financial agent of the foreign bank maintained that “It is time to hedge in titles tied to the CER (inflation), or directly take refuge in the ‘CCL’ (exchange rate) or dollarize, because everything is very cheap for what is ahead”.
To the complex economic panorama with a projected inflation of at least 70% per year are added the internal fights in the Government coalition that also play against the financial scenario.
“We have to stop the little machine” of printing bills from the central bank (BCRA), said Daniel Artana, an economist at the private FIEL foundation, explaining that official entities are the only buyers of public debt to cut losses among private investors. He added that to the Argentine economy “Dollars are not lacking, but pesos are left over,” at a time when the BCRA put more objections to imports to stop a worrying drain on its reserves.
On the other hand, the Central Bank continued with the slow but sure devaluation of the official exchange rate, which added another 17 cents during the day to reach $125.04. “The crawling peg was located at a TNA of 49.69%, keeping the average of the last five wheels above 51% since mid-June,” they described from PPI.
Source: Ambito
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