Market worsened inflation forecast again: it forecasts 76% for all of 2022

Market worsened inflation forecast again: it forecasts 76% for all of 2022

It is worth noting that the survey was carried out at the end of June, before the resignation of Martín Guzmán as head of the Ministry of Economy, which accelerated the spike in parallel exchange rates.

Now, those who best forecast inflation for the short term (TOP-10) On average, they expect inflation to be 79.2% yoy (4.1 pp higher than the May survey).

In addition, the REM participants reviewed the inflation forecasts for 2023 placing it at 64.6% yoy (4.6 pp more than the REM for May) and for 2024 at 50.2% yoy (4.1 pp higher than the previous survey).

Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 76.9% yoy at the end of 2022 (4.0 pp higher than the last survey).

For May 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested an inflation of 5.2% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 5.1%.

For June 2022, the median of the estimates of the current survey was 5.2% per month, while the average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters estimates it at 5.4%.

Dollar

REM analysts also revised their monthly projections for the dollar upwards.

They forecast that the wholesale dollar will reach $159.60 per dollar in December 2022. Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 to be $158.68.

GDP

Secondly, Analysts projected real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.2% (0.1 pp less than the previous REM).

The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 2.9% (0.6 pp less than the May survey).

As for the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, for the second quarter of 2022 the REM participants estimated a fall of 0.7% se, which is 0.2 pp lower in relation to the previous survey.

The variation estimate corresponding to the third quarter of 2022 was corrected from -0.1% se to a contraction of 0.5% se. Meanwhile, a variation of 0.0% se is projected for the fourth quarter of 2022 (the first time that was projected).

Interest rate

Analysts forecast a private bank BADLAR rate of 50.08%, 259 basis points higher than the average rate recorded during the month of May (48.21%).

There is evidence of an upward correction in the monthly projections. Those who best forecast the interest rate for the short term predict, on average, that it will be at 52.68% in the last month of 2022.

Source: Ambito

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