On Monday, with widespread declines in global benchmark markets, and with investors digesting the political speeches of Vice President Cristina de Kirchner and President Alberto Fernández in recent days, as well as the economic announcements by Batakis, the Argentine stocks that listed on Wall Street closed in negative territory: Mercado Libre lost 6.9%; Bioceres, 5.7%; Cresud, 4.9%; take off, 4.3%; Banco Macro, 4%; and YPF 3.6%. In the opposite direction, the three stocks that closed higher were Tenaris (+2.7%); Central Port (+1.9%); and Loma Negra (+0.9%).
In the local stock market, for its part, the S&P Merval stock index of Mercados y Bolsas Argentinas (BYMA) lost 1.3% yesterday, to a provisional close of 104,488.48 points, as a result of the fall in the price of the type of implicit exchange rate (CCL), which was the engine that last week explained the increases in the leading Buenos Aires index (17.5%)
The casualties were led by Cresud (-3.9%); Macro Bank (-3.4%); BYMA (-2.8%); Pampa Energia (-2.8%); and Supervielle Group (-2.7%).
Meanwhile, the main rises were recorded by Sociedad Comercial del Plata (+2.6%); Edenor (+1.4%); Cablevision (+1.1%); Alwar (+1%); and Holcim (0.9%).
“A priori, Batakis’s message of staying in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is positive. The announced measures did not bring any surprises and this helps to avoid further deepening the current noise,” they said from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI ).
However, the market believes that the announcements are not enough to correct the current imbalances. “The Minister spoke of the order and balance of public finances. A priori, the message of staying in line with the IMF is positive. However, the announced measures left little to be desired” added from PPI. “Seeing is believing?” Market operators repeated.
“It is expected to have more indications about the position of the other actors that make up the government coalition,” they maintained from another Broker. “And furthermore, there is a lack of details on the implementation of several of these measures in practice to understand the magnitude of their effect on fiscal numbers,” they added.
From the consulting firm Epyca they said that Batakis’s speech “added many promises and few immediate application measures” and that the issue involves the exchange rate gap, among other issues.
The positive data highlighted in Epyca was that “the minister reaffirmed her commitment to maintaining a fiscal path and that should be interpreted in the medium term as a favorable aspect.” “Greater discipline, accompanied by a rationality in spending and an agreement with the Fund, could encourage the recovery of local assets,” they added.
From Adcap Grupo Financiero -the firm led by Javier Timerman- they affirmed that Minister Batakis’ statements were in line with what was expected by the market, since she confirmed the continuity of the economic program and ratified the search for fiscal solvency.
But fears of a global recession in the economy with high inflation also drove investors away from risk markets. In the US, and with analysts expecting very high inflation figures for June (expectations are 1.1% monthly and 8.8% year-on-year), the S&P500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq lost 2.3%.
On the other hand, after Elon Musk withdrew his offer to acquire Twitter on Friday, the shares of the social network skidded 11.3% and those of Tesla 6.6%. “Everything indicates that the judicial stage is coming now,” they commented in the market.
Meanwhile, the 10-year bond rate fell 9 basis points to 3%, while WTI oil lost 1.4% to $103.30.
Bonds and country risk
In the fixed income segment, dollar bonds fell again, ending the day down as much as 3.5%.
“Globals began the week pessimistic, and at the open they were already -0.3/-0.5%. Despite the news, and a calmer wheel, they were unable to reverse the trend of recent days and ended in the red along the curve”, they described from a stock exchange company.
In this way, the weighted average of gloables fell to US$21.48, and the average rate stood at 30.57%. The monthly balance for debt thus remains negative, between -11.4% and -15.4%.
Last week, the Government paid some 425.6 million dollars in interest to holders of Global bonds under foreign law and this Monday it will pay the interest corresponding to Bonars under local law, commented analysts.
“Hopefully today’s (Monday) announcements will materialize in practice,” said Francisco Grismondi, former director of the BCRA, who described them as more orthodox.
Thus, the country risk measured by the JP. Morgan bank rose 18 basis points to 2,669 units, compared to a record of 2,728 units noted last week and the initial 1,083 points registered two years ago.
In the peso segment, CER bonds had a break: rises of between +0.3/+4.6% were recorded in the short part of the curve, and others of +4/+6% for the medium/ length of it.
Finally, dollar-linked sovereign bonds showed sales throughout the day, especially in the short section, which fell by an average of 2%.
Source: Ambito
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