In the last hours the Government has given birth to numerous measures. Paradoxically, these have not deserved any press conference. They are measures of a reactive nature, that is, they come to mitigate impacts that can already be sequenced. The central characteristic is that these are rules and provisions that are usually used and whose usefulness does not always guarantee the long term. Strictly speaking, they are actions that are usually used until other more ambitious systems are perfected.
The declarations of Minister Silvina Batakis last Monday revealed only part of the strategy. She said to herself -and it is so- that she “spoke to the markets”. Fiscalism and monetarism won their place in the official’s statements. As more than one political analyst said, “Guzmanism became.” Many maintain that, in recent weeks, prior to Guzmán’s departure, the former minister received numerous calls from bankers asking him about his intentions, strictly speaking, if he was not placing debt in pesos with the intention of “liquefying” them at some point. moment or at all times. He paid an expensive rate, but then gave rein to the steeds of inflation. Someone with a social outlook -this type of profile does not abound in the financial market-, wondered if Guzmán was not also liquefying the salaries of retirees, pensioners, and even salaried workers.
However, quietly, the Government at this time recovers the manual of other more mundane, less ideological tools, to stop the evolution of the dollar. This deployment of artillery was what made the Dolar blue up to the area of $285 and what significantly lowered the number of businesses that were made for cash with liquidation and the MEP, that is, financial dollars.
Face and back. On the one hand, critics of the administration point out that “in the end, despite the promises, there will not be a noticeable drop in public spending.” They maintain that the announcement of the real estate revaluation update will be difficult to implement in the short term, that energy subsidies will continue to outweigh the will to segment rates and that the program with the IMF will be halfway fulfilled. To this is added a detail that may be counterintuitive: there are those who maintain that, if the Government does not make announcements for a broad sector of society, the sectors with the lowest resources and even a certain recomposition of the salary through some forceful measures, then the union and social conflict can escalate. In other words, they ask the Casa Rosada to think not only about the markets, but also about the universe that does not have bonds or stocks, much less the blue dollar.
Apart from the measures for the shopping and tourist dollar, the relevant data of the last hours is that operations in the stock market linked to the MEP dollar and counted with liquidation began to flood. Ergo, a large number of businesses ended up leaving for the informal market. This explains that while the blue reached the area of $283, both the liquid and the MEP fell. For the first time in a long time, the blues surpassed the MEP.
The scheme ended up expelling the head of the National Securities Commission, Adrián Cosentino, and one of the directors of the entity, Matías Isasa, who were criticized for their lack of enthusiasm in the controls. Therefore, it is understood that the new management of the Commission will be more effective from now on.
Now, the other topic. The pesos. Although Batakis did well in the bidding (he placed $122 billion and was looking for only $30 billion), the helper was a promise made by Miguel Pesce to the banks. Pesce tells them: you keep the bonds that the Treasury-Batakis offers you, that anything I assume the commitment to buy the bonds in case you don’t want them later. It sells a derivative to the entities. And in return you get a risk premium. One might think that it is something innocent. Strictly speaking, tact in audacity is knowing how far one can go too far. But it should not be ignored that this offer from the BCRA may have, as a response, the cash requested (exercise) from the banks so that the Central, perhaps in a few weeks or months, repurchase that debt (puts), with the consequent deterioration of the sheet balance. Break glass in an emergency.
Source: Ambito
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