Blue dollar: what the market expects
the financial analyst Salvador DiStefanowho in a column with Ambit I had already talked about birth of the new tourist dollarassured that “far from generating confidence, the Government continues to apply restrictions. resolved to increase the 35.0% to 45.0% perception on account of Income Taxes and about the Personal property for operations with cards intended for consumption in dollars abroad“.
“Since his first public appearances, Silvina Batakis hinted that the game Tourism was an outflow of dollars that the government was concerned about and about which, sooner or later, they were going to act“, he continued.
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And he predicted: “Regarding restrictions, we do not rule out the application of some kind of block to the acquisition of stock dollar or counted with liquidation. Although the price of the official wholesale dollar seems to be in a proper value For the minister, we do not rule out that at some point they will be forced to apply a strong devaluation“.
“We believe that they are going to implement all the mechanisms that they have available to not do it, but the threat of devaluation seems always to be present“added the analyst.
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“This new management of the Ministry of Economy is outlined to implement a new monetary policy but it doesn’t seem to want to change the exchange policy“, he assured.
Isolated from the electoral climate, the dollar closed stable at $17.67 (blue exceeded $18)
Lastly, Di Stéfano mentioned the “balance dollarwhich is obtained from the relationship between monetary liabilities and reserves”. Faced with this, he proposed three scenarios:
- “In the event that the macroeconomic variables tend to normalize, we should see an equilibrium dollar around $275“.
- “In the event that there is no interesting entry of foreign currency into the coffers of the Central Bank, the equilibrium dollar would amount to $290“.
- “While, if reserves continue to fall, there is a possibility of escalation to the zone of $320 / $330“.
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On the other hand, according to a report by the PxQ Consultingthe blue dollar should climb to $351 for match the currency run experienced in October 2020, which was the biggest run of the management of Alberto Fernandezwhen he touched $195.
The coincidence among market analysts is that the blue dollar will reach at least $300 in a matter of days. The question is how much further it will go and if it’s time to buy or sell since, as the operators suggest, there are no bidders who can reverse the market trend.
Source: Ambito
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