The question savers are asking is how far the blue dollar will go. Analysts believe that the rise will continue. But there could also be profit taking.
Blue dollar: what the market expects
the financial analyst Salvador DiStefanowho in a column with Ambit I had already talked about birth of the new tourist dollarassured that “far from generating confidence, the Government continues to apply restrictions. resolved to increase the 35.0% to 45.0% perception on account of Income Taxes and about the Personal property for operations with cards intended for consumption in dollars abroad“.
Di Stéfano identified some factors that impact the price of the blue dollar: the lower devaluation of the Brazilian real; the disarmament of portfolios, with greater dollarization, which began after the departure of Martín Guzmán; the possibility that the Government places greater restrictions on the CCL; and the low volume in the informal market.
“If there is no significant volume, it is possible that this rise will run out in itself and give way to profit-taking,” he told Ámbito. However, he said that this does not rule out that the blue dollar will reach $400 by the end of the year and $500 for the 2023 elections.
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Guido Lorenzo, director of the LCG consulting firm, said that the rise of the blue dollar to $300 “reflects more the uncertainty and the preference for not having pesos rather than a reference value. Without concrete decisions, it will be difficult for us to see it go backwards. The most worrying thing is that Without a doubt, that value spreads over decisions to hoard dollars and merchandise and get rid of pesos, all of which drives inflation up.”
In “someone has to say it” by Radio miterthe Economist Carlos Melconiangave his opinion on the country’s economic situation.
“The value of the dollar is a product and consequence of things. There never was and there never will be governments that can decide how much the dollar is worth,” said the former president of Banco Nación.
And he continued: “When the cannons of economic policy, treasury policy, currency issuance policy, competitiveness, when all that is wrong, the repercussion always has two directions, the value of the exchange rate. In Argentina in particular, another phenomenon is generated in sidereal magnitudes, which is the inflation rate”.
“How expensive it was to go out to support the cer bonds and the current inaction of the BCRA is more expensive for us,” analyst Christian Buteler wrote on Twitter. And he also left a meme:
At the beginning of the year, the blue dollar was selling at $208 for sale. Since the arrival of Silvina Batakis at the Ministry of Economy, it has become more expensive by 25%, an increase of more than $60 in July alone.
The parallel currency evolution It is closely followed both by the Government, which tends to minimize its impact, and by the population in general, and it has an impact on various sectors that set prices based on expectations about the informal dollar.
Source: Ambito
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