“A slightly weaker US dollar and improving equity markets are supporting oilUBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said on Monday. Oil futures have been volatile in recent weeks as traders have tried to reconcile the chances of further interest rate hikes, which could limit economic activity. and, therefore, cut the growth in fuel demand, in the face of scarce supply.
“Increasing fears of a global recession suggest gains are likely to be limited in the short term, geopolitics aside”assured Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA.
Fed officials have indicated that the central bank is likely to raise rates by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. Other market analysts say that the rate hike could be 100 basis points to try to curb the inflation rate that shot up above 9%.
The FED has already adjusted the interest rate three times this year and was unable to neutralize the rise in prices, driven by the rise in the price of energy and food.
China, for its part, narrowly escaped a contraction in the second quarter. The world’s second-largest economy grew just 0.4% year-on-year, hit by COVID-19 lockdowns, a weak real estate sector and cautious consumers.
A strong premium in the first month compared to the second continues to indicate short-term supply shortages. The spread stood at $4.82 a barrel on Friday, an all-time high if expiration-related spikes in the previous two months are excluded.
Source: Ambito

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