After announcing that the refunds to the Central Bank will begin on Monday to fulfill the promise of “zero emission” until the end of the year, Finance will have to cover maturities for $400,000 million in Treasury bills, out of a total of $575 million that has the eighth month of 2022. The tender will be held on Thursday 11, coinciding with the release of the official inflation data for Julya number that in the midst of economic uncertainty and exchange rate tension.
What can we expect from the dollar
On Friday, the blue dollar rose again, although it remained below $300, according to a survey by Ámbito on the Foreign Exchange Black Market. Meanwhile, financial dollars posted their first decline in four days.
For Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina Equilibra economist in the coming days there will be caution: “The measures that tend to reinforce reserves, it is sought that the official dollar be updated at the rate it came. The key is the gap, it depends on how these measures are assimilated. In the short term there will be more stability in the dollar until things become clearer”.
In the same line, Sebastian Menescaldi Associate Director of Eco Go gave a first impression: “We will have to wait a few weeks. Fiscal matters are fine, but we don’t know if what he announced is sufficient, monetary and exchange matters are weak. There is a lack of measures that change the flow of foreign capital (taking on debt changes the stocks, but not the flows, the direction of where the capital goes), all of this in a context where the interest rate runs below depreciation and inflation” .
While, Paula Gándara, CIO of Adcap Asset Management pointed out with Ámbito: “Sergio Massa’s announcements were in line with what was expected and go in the right direction. He gave a friendly speech towards the market, but specific details are lacking to convince.”
“What is really important for the market is that neither he nor Martín Guzmán presented a comprehensive plan to stabilize the economy, which is what Argentina needs. The difference between one and the other is that Massa has more political power – he appears with the consensus of the entire government, unlike Guzmán -, and that is positive. Also, that he emphasizes that he is going to cut subsidies; Massa’s proposal is more tax-oriented”.
Regarding the exchange rate, Gándara assures that “There is devaluation pressure, but the BCRA continually sells dollars, and it does so because of the energy balance, because of energy imports. It is difficult to sustain the price of the dollar with the current fall in reserves of the Central Bank. That is the mother of all problems.”
“We expect some short-term stability in the dollar” while affirming that the inflation is “going to fly”. “In July it’s probably about 8%, and in August it’s maybe even higher.”
Source: Ambito
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