Dollar: devaluation ruled out, economists expect differential exchange rate

Dollar: devaluation ruled out, economists expect differential exchange rate

“The disorder in the economy has to do with the exchange gap which is currently around 120%, added the economist Andrés Borenstein.

“The Massa plan has already taken its first steps in fiscal and monetary matters, such as the possible rise in tariffs and an increase in the interest rate. However, Measures are still lacking on the most urgent level, which is the foreign exchange market. Ruled out a devaluation by the Government, the expectation is that there will be some type of exchange differentiated to certain sectors -agriculture, oil, etc-,” said Roberto Geretto, of the Fundcorp fund.

“The focus of the week will be on the intervention of the BCRA in the foreign exchange market. The BCRA must stop the loss of reserves since it entered the risk zone. It will be important to see the evolution of the liquidation of agriculture before the ‘promise’ of early harvest“, said the liquidation and placement agent Cohen.

“Massa is characterized by its capacity for dialogue and that brings some calm to the markets, but it is entering a stage in which the country requires concrete facts beyond good intentions,” commented a private banking financial agent foreign. “The attempts to postpone the decision to devalue are increasingly costly”added Marina Dal Poggetto, executive director of the Eco Go consultancy.

“The advantages and disadvantages of a very fast ‘crawling peg’, a moderate jump in the exchange rate or a split have to be carefully evaluated as part of a comprehensive plan that reduces macroeconomic imbalances, even if this implies giving additional ‘bad news’ in the short term,” said the consulting firm Delphos Investment.

“In case some other element is missing to warn about the seriousness of the current inflationary process in Argentina, the figure registered in July (7.4%) showed that we are getting closer to hyperinflation“, said Víctor Beker, director of the Center for Studies of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano.

“Although it was expected to be high (the inflation data for July), these figures accelerate the population’s concern. Important analysts already place annual inflation in 2022 at an estimate of more than 100%,” said Ayelen Romero, executive of Stock Rava accounts.

Source: Ambito

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