“The financial dollar continues to move in step with the events that are observed at the international level. Both the decline that began at the end of July, which coincides with the assumption of Massa as Minister of Economy, and the recent rise can be explained by global reasons. It is enough to see what is observed in currencies of neighboring countries, such as the Chilean peso, or some more distant ones such as the South African Rand,” he said. Leonardo Chialvapartner of Delphos Investment in dialogue with Ambit.
“The lack of a comprehensive economic plan with strong political support means that local issues do not have enough weight to change the course of global events”, he added. Thus, at the international level, the “super dollar” closed at five-week highs as investors analyze the probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, which impacts emerging currencies.
In this complex context, Paul Repetto Head of Research at Aurum Valores, clarified the impact of the recent boost from the MEP and the CCL on the Dolar blue: “the rises (and the falls as well) in the free dollar markets are arbitraged at some point. If the financial dollars consolidate their rises, it is most likely that the blue will also rise. That is what usually happens”.
On this occasion, the rebound of the CCL was related to the sales registered in the TO26 bond (security in pesos at a fixed rate) by foreign investors who decided to part with part of their holdings in bonds in pesos.
Repetto also points out that restrictions on imports also affect the change in trend observed in free dollars: “a demand appears that could be called business survival due to the difficulties that some companies encounter in accessing the MULC. By not being able to access This market has no other alternative than to demand free dollars in order to sustain its activity. The existing macroeconomic disorder causes price references to be lost and makes it easier to validate price increases that could not be made in another context. In this sense, importing to the CCL and transferring that import price to the value of the good to be sold is less complicated and allows the survival of companies that should not close their doors (those that cannot do so, we already see that they are beginning to have suspensions or closures). “.
In this context, he concluded: “The rise in rates can help a little to decompress the situation, but in reality what defines the rise is the excess of pesos exhibited by the economy. This surplus of pesos is one of the main determinants of the value of the free dollar, providing the fuel for the bands on which the CCL fluctuates to be between $290 and $315. Until the demand for pesos recovers (the rise in rates may help a little but it is still behind events) or at least the money supply falls sharply, the upward pressure on free dollars will remain.”
Source: Ambito
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