Economists and analysts give their opinion on the country’s situation, when there is a debate about reinforcing reserves for the central bank (BCRA), attacking rampant inflation and reducing the fiscal deficit.
Massa’s arrival “could offer an opportunity for a more assertive policy change that would improve performance under the country’s IMF program,” Fitch Ratings said in a report. “However, the measures announced so far do not amount to a comprehensive adjustment plan needed to do so,” held.
“The new announcement (for agriculture) is temporary for September, but what is going to happen in October? It is not fair to those who, for example, sold last week,” said Nicolás Pino, president of Sociedad Rural Argentina, when confirmed that soybeans can be settled at 200 pesos per dollar against an official exchange rate close to 140 units.
“The difference in pesos that the central bank must have to buy the dollars from agriculture will come from somewherewhich mainly suggests that this week we will have a new rise in the reference interest rate so that banks absorb more liquidity,” analyst Marcelo Rojas projected.
“An improved exchange rate for soybeans is recognizing that we have a backward currencybut there will be other sectors that will also demand a higher exchange rate for their exports, in what is read as a splitting of the official market,” commented a foreign private banking agent.
“A more lax monetary policy would relieve the BCRA’s balance sheet at the price of higher inflation, while an increase in the interest rate would help in the inflationary plane, but would sharpen the quasi-fiscal dynamics,” explained the consulting firm Ecolatina.
“The political turbulence, caused by the progress of the legal case faced by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and the mobilizations in her support, played in favor of the management of the new Minister Sergio Massa,” said the Center for Studies of the New Economy ( CENE) of the University of Belgrano.
“Controlling the market”, synthesized the Cohen settlement and compensation agency on the current exchange rate. The BCRA has “16 consecutive days without foreign currency sales, accumulating net purchases of 318 million dollars.” “We are going to be involved in this political debate, as it had already begun before this attack (against Fernández) with the issues of Justice (…), so it seems to me that this is going to distract a lot from the management of Sergio Massa and he you will continue to act little by little and with less focus on what you are doing“, said the analyst Javier Timerman in radio statements.
“In the market, a stability of the ‘cash with settlement’ (CCL) and an increase in interest in titles in pesos (CER and duals) were observed, indicating an incipient return of the ‘carry trade,'” said Delphos Investment. “However, the short term of Treasury placements (five months) could result in a progressive concentration of maturities due to pre-election uncertainty.”
Source: Ambito
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