“We estimate that the recent uncertainty effect caused exports to be delayed by some US$1.2 billion in the last 90 days,” says the private report.
The work details that the new scheme for soy announced by the government “it could attract the liquidation of a good part of what was withheld” so that “the additional offer for September (more cereals and less fuel) could be around US$1,500 to US$2,000 million”.
Last night, the Minister of Economy, Serge Massaannounced a new scheme for liquidating dollars from soybean exports.
The initiative contemplates the opening of a special session of the Foreign Exchange Market until the end of the month in which cereal companies that enter foreign currency will receive an exchange rate of $200.
The report of Mega QM maintains that “for September we should expect about US$500 million less demand for dollars due to seasonality”, based on “a greater drop in fuel imports in relation to the seasonal decrease in cereal exports.”
“In October it would already be about $1 billion less than in August,” the report added.
In another aspect, The report indicates that in August the BCRA managed to accumulate foreign currency purchases for only US$45 million in the year.
“In 2021 at this time of the year, they had bought US$7.2 billion,” highlights the consultant.
The consultant created a variable table that will come into play in the coming months that the Central BankHe shall take into account:
Low Liquidation of Exports: in cereals due to seasonality should have been settled between US$400 and US$500 million more.
High and stable import payments: stabilized at US$6.5 billion due to fuel purchases
Good obligatory financing of imports: Due to the regulations in force since June, the level of monthly financing of imports for 6 months is located at US$1,600 to US$1,700 million.
High demand for Tourism and cancellation of private debt: Spending on tourism in July reached $750 million million. Debt cancellation was US$455 million in the monthly average of the first semester.
Source: Ambito
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