While, the Merval in dollars (CCL) reached 526 points, the highest since September 11, 2021. The Buenos Aires stock market, for its part, advances to its historical maximum in the second week of validity of the soybean dollar that allowed the Central Bank (BCRA) to recompose reserves. The S&P Merval it rose 1.4% and reached an intraday record of 146,690.51 points, after the previous intraday record of 145,859.42 units recorded at the end of August. The leading panel comes from increasing 6.1% in the previous week.
“This ‘soybean dollar’ represents very short-term relief since it is a recovery of forced reserves. Fund adjustments (exchange and monetary) are needed since the Government does not want to abruptly devalue, but a rate hike should be falling by an inflation that is already shaping up to almost 100% (by 2022),” said analyst Marcelo Rojas.
“The new grain settlement policy and greater external financing from multilateral organizations provided temporary relief in the market,” said Portfolio Personal Investments.
“The government bought time to strengthen reserves and reduce devaluation expectations in the short term. However, let us remember that the ‘B’ side of the ‘soybean dollar’ is an unsustainable capital loss on the BCRA’s balance sheet,” he added.
The Ministry of Economy expects to add at least US$5,000 million to reserves in September from soybean producers -one of the main crops in the country-, to whom it recognizes 200 pesos for each dollar settled, compared to a official exchange around 35% lower.
Amid latent risk aversion due to domestic challenges and fears of a global recession, inflation for August will be released in the middle of the week, after a recent survey projected 95% for the entire year.
Operators attribute this firmness to a combination of political news due to the assumption of Massa, the financial market due to the recovery of reserves and the hydrocarbon market due to the cuts in subsidies, added to the strength of its ADRs on Wall Street.
Bonds and country risk
In the fixed income segment, bonds in dollars rise across the board up to 2% led by the Global 2029, followed by the Bonar 2029 (1.3%) and the Bonar 2030 (0.9%). In tune, the risk country fell 0.1% to 2,320 basis points and recorded its third consecutive fall.
Source: Ambito
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