official calculations register an appreciation in the real exchange rate during the current year, of the order of 14%but for By 2023, the official dollar is expected to advance practically at the same rate as projected inflation.
In this matter, the project recognizes that inflation will be 95% in the current year, but a deceleration to 60% (point to point) is expected for the next and a lower step 44%- by 2024.
The estimate for 2022 coincides with the median of the opinions collected in the last REM, but it should be noted that the rise in prices in August was higher than expected by analysts (the INDEC published 7% when the REM expected 6.5 %).
To close the year with a variation in consumer prices of 95% Average inflation for the remainder of 2022 is required to be below 6% per month.
As for the 60% inflation calculated by the government for next year, as noted, the estimate is also optimistic based on private forecasts that calculate 84%.
Specialists in budget issues point out that the underestimation of inflation made it easier for the economy ministers to meet the fiscal deficit goals, since the resources ended up being higher than those projected due to the effect of prices.
Although the projections contemplate an average drop in real wages, income is expected to recover, by 2%, by the end of the year, with an unemployment rate that would remain at 7% of the economically active population.
Taxes
Of course, in order to meet the deficit reduction next year to 1.9%, Congress needs to approve the renewal of national taxes that expire this year. The taxes are: Income Tax; Personal property; on bank credits and debits (better known as check tax); final sale price of cigarettes; the taxes of the monotax regime; Tax on tickets abroad and the Capital of Cooperatives. In addition, the specific VAT allocations are extended.
Expectations are also placed on the announcements made regarding how to finance the budget imbalance at a time when the Treasury and the Central Bank are paying higher interest rates (or indexing the debt) and taking credit in terms that have been shortening.
It should be remembered, as Ámbito anticipated, that the GDP would go from growing 4% in the current year to 2% the next. In dollar terms, the product would reach US$670 billion in 2023. By 2024, an expansion of 2% of GDP is also expected.
Despite this lower rate of growth, the official forecast is optimistic in light of the latest projections by private analysts included in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank. The median of this survey anticipates a growth of 3.6% for the current year and 1% for the next.
The data on which the budget project was prepared includes a lower expansion of investment, which would go from growing 10% in the current year to 2.9% next year. Private consumption would also slow down, going from an increase of 6.5% in the current year to an increase of 2% the next.
On the other hand, an increase in exports is estimated, of 7.1%, and imports would rise much less: 2%. External purchases would register, if the forecast were true, a marked decrease in its growth since 2022 would culminate with an expansion of more than 16%.
The reasons would be, on the one hand, the slower pace of economic activity forecast and, in parallel, the decrease in energy imports from the planned commissioning of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline to take advantage of the unconventional resources of Vaca Muerta.
In this way, the trade surplus would have a jump of almost 4,600 million dollars going from 7,751 million dollars in 2022 to 12,347 million in 2023.
Source: Ambito
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