In turn, the MEP dollar -valued with Global 2030- climbed $14.21 (+5.2%) to $289.66. Thus, the spread with the officer reached 102.3%.
In the informal market, on the other hand, the blue dollar down $1 (-0.4%) to $276according to a field survey in the Black Market of Currencies. Meanwhile, the gap with the official dollar fell to 92.7%.
Among the causes that led to the sharp jump in financial exchange rates are a worsening of conditions in the external context, pressured by expectations of a more aggressive rise in US interest rates than has been seen so far, at the same time as light of the latest data from the world’s leading economy.
“Although the worse-than-expected CPI data for Argentina could have revived the foreign exchange demand, I understand that mainly the acceleration of the MEP and the liquidity account responds to global phenomena”, commented to Ambit Juan Pablo Albornoz, economic analyst at Inveqc.
Inflation in the US showed higher data in August than was projected (8.3% vs. 8.1% year-on-year). In turn, core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 0.6% monthly and 6.3% in annual terms, which implies an acceleration compared to the figure for July. “This accentuates the perception that the inflationary process is more difficult to tame than was believed,” Albornoz said.
Additionally, some US labor market data came in better than expected (jobless claims hit their lowest since May). What does this imply? “That not only is inflation more difficult to lower than previously thought, but also that the labor market is not yet suffering from the Fed’s rate hike. Although it may sound paradoxical, the market wants to see employment data in the US worsening because that gives the Fed room to not be so aggressive monetaryally and raise rates less abruptly,” completed the Inveqc economic analyst.
All in all, a rise of 75 basis points in the US is now being discounted, and with less probability one of 100 points, while two weeks ago the question was whether it would rise by 50 or 75 points.
This whole situation favors an increase in risk aversion at a global level and currencies weaken against the dollar, in the search for refuge. In fact, in Brazil, the real has depreciated 3% since the beginning of the week, and the yuan is flirting with touching 7 units per dollar.
Another factor that partly explains the strong rebound of the CCL and MEP is the increase in potential demand generated by the measure of the soybean dollar, count in the market.
“The strong increase in demand for the CCL and MEP could have its correlation with the settlements made by agriculture through the soybean dollar, but also because the market sees that, in the near future, a large amount of pesos in the market derived from the issuance by this measure can complicate the panorama of the fiscal deficit”, Economist Federico Glustein remarked to this medium.
The Central Bank (BCRA) closed the round this Thursday with purchases for US$300 million, with what he accumulated eighth consecutive day increasing the reserves. The BCRA continued the path started two Tuesdays ago, after the Ministry of Economy made official the application of an exchange rate of 200 pesos per dollar for soybean exports until September 30.
The measure was agreed upon with the main exporting complexes, which undertook to liquidate soybeans and derivatives for at least US$5,000 million. The volume traded in the soybean dollar segment today was more than US$455 million, according to Gustavo Quintana, an analyst at PR Corredores de Cambio. Market sources estimated that, since the beginning of the month, the monetary authority has already acquired around US$2 billion.
In this context, The BCRA board endorsed this Thursday an interest rate of 75% nominal (from the previous 69.5%) representative of the effective 107%to take the pressure off the dollar and weigh the new exchange rate in favor of soybean producers.
In addition, after the market closed, the Central Bank ruled that users who have requested subsidies in public service rates will not be able to buy savings dollars, MEP and CCL. “The Board of Directors of the BCRA established that the users of natural gas supplies through the network, electricity and drinking water, while they receive a subsidy in some or all of these services, may not access the official market or carry out operations with titles and other securities with settlement in foreign currency“, reported the monetary authority in a press release.
The decision had already been anticipated by the controller of the Energy Regulatory Entity (ENRE), Walter Martello, and today the BCRA made it official. After this announcement, nearly 25,000 users unsubscribed from the subsidy request so as not to lose the benefit of buying dollar savings.
On the other hand, the Government was working against the clock to fulfill before midnight the presentation of next year’s budget project before Congress, which, according to the criteria of the journalistic media, would have a 2% growth in the economy.
official dollar
The dollar today -without taxes- advanced 38 cents this Thursday, September 15, at $149.99 for saleaccording to the average that emerges from the banks of the local financial system. At Banco Nación, meanwhile, the retail bill closed unchanged at $149.
In addition, the dollar saved or solidarity dollar-which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax and 35% deductible of the Income Tax and of Personal property– won 62 cents at $247.48.
In turn, the tourist dollar or retail card plus COUNTRY Tax, and a perception of 45% deductible from the Income Tax and of Personal property– rose 67 cents to $262.48.
Finally, the wholesale dollar, which is directly regulated by the BCRA, rose 38 cents to $143.99 this Thursday.
Source: Ambito
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