The soybean dollar proposal strongly reversed the monetary entity’s selling trend in order to advance in the goal proposed in the agreement with the IMF to increase reserves. As of last Friday, agro-exporters had liquidated 8 million tons of soybeans and already reached US$4 billion, according to CIARA-CEC data.
In other words, in the first 16 days of implementation of the measure, the 80 percent that had been proposed for the entire month in which it will be in force has already been reached.
It is discounted that as September passes the initial momentum will slow down but at the current settlement values from Economy they hope that the objective will be overachieved.
Another phenomenon of the last month is the acceleration of the rise in the official dollar, although the Government flatly rules out a devaluation, an appreciation of the official dollar did intensify, a point that several sectors had been warning that it was delayed.
“It already reaches 6%. The official dollar ended the week with a rise of 1.5%, advancing 6% in monthly terms; rising from 5.4% in August, and 4% in June. For its part, the CCL rose 6% past US$300, leaving the gap to exceed 110%,” Adcap said.
The 2023 Budget presented this week in Congress sets that the exchange rate would close at $166.5 in December of this year and at $269.9 at the end of 2023, which is equivalent to a 62% devaluation in line with inflation for 2023.
The first economic measures of the Massa administration are giving the Government a break, but some sectors are wondering what will happen as of October 1 when the soybean dollar stops oxygenating the reserves and reassuring the exchange rate.
“The announcement of the ban on buying savings dollars and operating MEP/CCL for those who receive electricity, gas and water subsidies, together with the study of changes in the tourist dollar, indicate that the current policy of differentiated exchange rates, acceleration of ´Crawling peg´ and exchange restrictions will continue”, they explained from Dephos Investment.
“The government will have to strike a delicate balance to preserve the reserves that it is accumulating during September. A jump in the exchange rate appears as a last resort due to the political restrictions within the ruling coalition and due to the foreseeable acceleration of the already high inflation”added the consultant’s report.
However, he warned that “inflation in August (7% monthly) and the expected rise in Bank rates to 75% TNA (107% TEA) confirm that the economy is in a nominal race with key variables (official exchange rate , interest rates and prices) running at more than 100% per year with little chance of slowing down in the short term”.
“The rate hike further increases the quasi-fiscal deficit (4.6% this year and 5.7% of GDP in 2023), putting a floor on the nominal value of the economy in the medium term,” he added.
Source: Ambito
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