Dollar: measures in analysis, projections and what the market expects

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Analysts consulted by Ámbito see a rearrangement of the blue dollar in the new scenario. Likewise, an international report by 40 economists from consulting firms and national and foreign banks also provided projections on what to expect with the price of the dollar.

In a scenario of lack of dollars, the Government reinforced the exchange trap: They will not be able to buy savings, MEP and CCL who maintain tariff subsidies and also established a trap for agro-exporters.

Restrictions on the tourist dollar

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The new measures under analysis now point to the tourist dollar, given that the government is concerned about a greater outflow of foreign currency due to the expenses of the Argentines who will travel to Qatar for the World Cup.

The The Government is studying the application of modifications to the dollar card because, the Minister of Economy, Serge Massa “In recent days, it received a number of proposals from different sectors, from industries, from companies, which is a proposal that the Government shares, which is that the dollars have to be destined for greater production, for job creation, to attend to the health situations that need to be addressed”.

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In the market it is rumored that it would be under analysis to raise the perception of the income tax from 45 to 52%. That possibility would be more speculation than reality. Minister Sergio Massa is not inclined towards options that imply a tax increase.

Another idea that transpired is that all operations related to tourism be processed through the MEP dollar, which would mean an open exchange split. MEP operations are carried out through the purchase of a sovereign bond in pesos and its resale in exchange for dollars.

soybean dollar

The Central Bank ordered this Monday that the agro-export companies that sold soybean dollar will not be able to access official exchange market, nor to the Stock Exchange to buy MEP or CCL. It was later confirmed that the goal of US$5 billion set by Sergio Massa was exceeded.

The measure does not include producers that sell soybeans but the companies that do so. “I want to clarify that the resolution of the Central Bank does not include the producers who have been accompanying the Export Increase Program with so much effort,” said the Secretary of Agriculture, Juan José Bahillo.

“Economic agents that have sold soybeans under the Export Increase Program will not be able to access the foreign exchange market for foreign currency purchases nor carry out operations with titles and securities with settlement in foreign currency,” the Central Bank officially communicated. .

In other words, those who took advantage of the Settlements to one “soy dollar” that had as objective of accelerating the sale of this oilseed, their possibilities of access to the foreign exchange market will be restricted.

New measures for the dollar

In addition to those already mentioned and those under analysis, the Government reported more measures linked to the dollar. One of them is that the Budget includes a laundering through which undeclared dollars can be entered to buy used real estate and pay for imports.

In article 71, the Budget establishes that the funds that are declared (which must pay between 5 and 20% according to the original rule) “may also be used for the acquisition of a used property.” Let’s remember that until now you could only buy new units or units under construction.

The purchase of used properties, however, will have limitations: it must be destined for the home of the person who launders money and his family or, “for a period of not less than 10 years”, for rent with the exclusive destination of a house-room (that is, not commercial).

The whitening period would be 6 months and there are no money laundering restrictions for those who already have properties in their name. Thus, a taxpayer could have other real estate and buy a used property to use as a home and thus qualify for money laundering.

In last Friday’s edition of “What is said at the tables”, the traditional section of Financial sphere, it is indicated: Many speculations about whether all this minuet of isolated measures does not prepare the ground for a plan in the style of the Austral, saving the differences and the teams involved. In reference to the blow of former president Raúl Alfonsín that shortly after allowed him to win the elections. This hypothesis is based on the simple fact that if inflation continues to be dislocated, it will be difficult to reach 2023, not just the elections. Meanwhile, more noise of splitting, much touted by Vice Rubinstein.

dollars for imports

On the other hand, in article 72 of the 2023 Budget, it is enabled use undeclared dollars to bring merchandise from abroad into the country.

To do this, create the “Argentine Investment and Production Incentive Regime” through which residents in Argentina will be able to launder dollars in the country and abroad for one year but only to pay for imports for consumption, including services, intended for production processes. The funds must be deposited in a Special Deposit and Cancellation Account for Argentine Investment and Production “in the manner and within the terms established by the AFIP and the Central Bank,” says the initiative.

The tax that must be paid in this case is similar to that established for Construction: from the date the Regime enters into force and until 90 calendar days have elapsed: 5%; from the 90th to the 180th day: 10%; from day 180 to year: 20%. The dollars will be valued at the purchasing exchange rate of Banco Nación.

super dollar and reserves

On the external front, the dollar in the world is at its highest levels in 20 years. And for international analysts, the bullish rally is not over yet. For Argentina it has a triple impact: it hits against emerging countries, raw materials, and investor appetite.

Source: Ambito

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