In any case, the official considered through his Twitter account that Until “exchange unification is achieved, there will be a certain disorder and higher-than-normal business margins.”
Nevertheless, ruled out for now the unification of the foreign exchange market, which in his opinion “looks too risky without a robust primary fiscal surplus and almost no reserves.” Although, at the same time he remarked that “the north (3 years?) should be that”.
“As soon as we can, we should return to the macro of 2003-2005: primary surplus of 3% of GDP, therefore external surplus, single dollar and inflation of 5% per year, without price controls, with US$ 40,000 million in net reserves “, Rubinstein said.
The official also assured that the “The companies are not to blame for the exchange disorder, although there are regulatory abuses and corruption.” “It is our responsibility (government) that all this improves and that is what we are doing,” stressed the Vice Minister of Economy.
“Yesterday, together with (Economy Minister) Sergio Massa and the team, we presented the Budget in Congress. I then explained the reasons why 60% inflation by 2023 would be realistic,” Rubinstein noted.
The deputy minister clarified that “the monetary impulse of fiscal origin would be compatible with an inflation of 40% (3% monthly)”.
In any case, he explained that the “excess aggregate demand caused by the fiscal deficit will continue to drive high inflation. Acting on inertia, and on margins, we will be able to lower the CPI from 90% to 60%, which is only a first step.”
“From the government, we will act to improve the exchange system, whose disorder facilitated an exaggerated rise in business gross margins, and on inertia factors,” he said.
In this regard, he stressed that “by attacking inflationary inertia and seeking a reasonable drop in business margins, we will be able to bring real inflation closer to the theoretical one (monetary impulse of fiscal origin)”.
“And if Congress improved the Budget, eliminating the primary fiscal deficit, it would provide us with a great tool so that we can return to normal inflation, of the order of 10% per year, in less time than almost everyone believes,” he said.
Once the main variables of the Budget were known, the president of the Senate Budget Commission, Ricardo Guerra, affirmed that “it is realistic” since it assigns “priorities within a framework of restrictions.”
“I don’t think that (Together for Change) makes the same political mistake of not approving the Budget. I am very optimistic in that sense,” said the legislator from the Front of All.
For the legislator, Massa’s exposition “was very clear, detailed and comprehensive. It is a realistic Budget and it is within the context in which the country finds itself since it assigns priorities to education, health and public works.”
Minister Massa, together with his economic team, presented yesterday in the National Congress the central guidelines of the 2023 Budget Project.
During his presentation, which lasted three hours, he detailed the most important macroeconomic axes projected for the coming year, which include a 2% rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a deficit of 1.9% and inflation average 60%.
“In the final steps of my political life, I want to do this well. The macro goals are set on the basis of different policies, the combination of monetary, fiscal, reserve accumulation, public and private investment policies are what allow building development of the macro projections that scenario,” he said.
The Vice Minister Gabriel Rubinstein, and the Secretaries of the Treasury Raul Rigo, of Finance, Eduardo Setti, of Production, José Ignacio De Mendiguren, of Energy, Flavia Royon, and of Agriculture, José Bahillo, attended the Congress.
Source: Ambito
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