On the last day of the month, bonds in dollars closed with falls of up to 6.8% (Bonar 2035).
On average, local law bonds fell 9% in dollars and foreign law bonds 12%, “thus signaling the closure of the position of investors who cannot operate under local law,” they explained from the market.
A) Yes, the Argentine country risk measured by the JP Morgan bank accumulated a rise of 17% in the month, to finish near the 2,800 units.
Compared to the Emerging Markets ETF (the EMB), which fell by 7%, it can be concluded that the local context still plays against without palpable improvements in certain indicators, such as inflation.
In the global economic framework, fears of a recession in a context of rising interest rates to alleviate inflation created a marked aversion to risk at a time of firm dollar strength.
Within the fixed income segment, “sovereign bonds in dollars were the hardest hit in an adverse context for emerging markets, where the US Federal Reserve announced that it will continue with a restrictive monetary policy until 2024, a dollar rising, and that the possibilities of global recession lead to a movement of capital towards safer markets”, commented Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL investonline.
Regarding debt in pesos, the Dual Bonuses were the biggest gainers of the month, with average gains of 8.5%, followed by titles Dollar-Linkedwhich increased 8% on average, which shows that the market continues to position itself defensively against a possible devaluation, despite the success in terms of reserves accumulated by the dollar Soybeans: in September the Central Bank bought almost US$5 billion in net form, an unprecedented figure for a month since registration.
In the meantime, CER debt accumulated a 7% point-to-point increase in the month, close to the inflation projected for September.
“The long part of the curve was above 7%, thus giving signs of a market that is beginning to see a positive position after 2024. This was particularly reflected in the last auction of the month where the most requested instrument was the Dual maturing in February 2024. The Badlar saw a smaller increase in their price, in a scenario where the last rate hike has already been discounted and it is not clear in the future if this measure will continue given the strong increase in remunerated liabilities this month”, Dozelli added.
S&P Merval and ADRs
in the stock market, the leading benchmark S&P Merval gained 0.8% to 139,115.09 points, based on improvement in local ADRs listed in New York.
Thus, throughout the month the leading panel noted a tepid improvement of 2.1% in pesos, and a fall of 3.2% measured in CCL dollars.
Meanwhile, the Argentine shares that operate on Wall Street ended the round with the majority of increases, led by Central Pureto (+2.2%), Corporation America (+2%). Meanwhile, the losses were recorded by the actions of Pampa Energia (-1.3%); Tenaris (-1.1%) and Banco Macro (-1%).
During September, the Argentine papers registered disparate variations. The greatest advances were evidenced YPF (+13.1%); and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (+11.8%). Instead, the main casualties were recorded by take off (-27.9%); and Cresud (-12.6%).
Source: Ambito
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