From September 5 until last Friday, a special exchange rate of 200 pesos per dollar was in force, above the current 147 pesos. The measure allowed 7,646 million dollars to enter the BCRA.
“The announcement of an economic plan or a series of coherent measures that serve as a guide for local activity is to be expected. One component of it would be to adjust the official exchange rate to competitive levels, since the distortions due to segmented devaluations seem hard to sustain,” Vat Net Financial Research said.
“If it were not carried out in a moderate and consensual manner, there would be a danger that the context would impose sudden adjustments with greater economic, political and social costs.s,” he stated.
“The relief granted by the ‘soybean dollar’ to the reserves is crucial, since the supply from the field would loosen in the coming months and so among the initiatives it is anticipated that more restrictions on demand would arrive,” said Gustavo Ber, Ber study economist.
“Beyond the adverse external context that has been putting pressure on emerging currencies, and the expectation that the post ‘soybean dollar’ arouses, financial dollars still respond relatively laterally, according to operators, to possible interventions, in order to cushion the search for refuge in the ‘super dollar’ as is happening throughout the world,” he said.
“The survey of retail prices by (the consultant) C&T for GBA (the suburbs of Buenos Aires) presented (in September) a monthly increase of 6.8%, slightly higher than that of August (6.7%) and much higher to September 2021 (2.8%), the latter causing the twelve-month variation to climb to 82.8%, the highest since December 1991.
“We have a set of prices and important variables that are moving in a direction of higher inflation and not less inflation”said Fabián Amico, a researcher at the Institute of Labor Statistics of the UMET, in radio statements.
“There is a set of regulated prices that are already set to increase: rates, fuel, telecommunications, rentals… It is very unlikely that inflation will go down,” he said.
“For more than 30 years we have always had at least a quarter of the population living in poverty,” Gala Díaz Langou of CIPPEC recalled in radio statements.
“We have to understand a little better why we are in this situation and one of the main issues to understand is that there is a decoupling between social protection and the labor market, that both were created with a structure that no longer exists.”
“If Argentine stocks rise on average, with sovereign bonds falling, there has to be a reason that is driving them. We believe that despite the fact that Argentina has major macroeconomic problems (high inflation, exchange controls, exchange rate gap, fiscal deficit), “the micro” is giving good news,” said clearing and settlement agent Cohen.
“For example, the agricultural-livestock sector is gaining momentum with good prices for agricultural commodities, the ‘oil & gas’ sector is gaining momentum thanks to Vaca Muerta, which is growing more and more; the energy sector is also bringing good news “, he pointed.
“The economic-financial dynamic continues to favor the risk-off mode (sale of higher-risk assets)”estimated the consulting firm Delphos Investment, and estimated that “current oversold conditions may tempt some investors. Not us.”
Source: Ambito
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