With everything, country risk What does JP Morgan bank measure? it yielded 4.8% to 2,519 points, the lowest level in a month. Since last Thursday, this index accumulates a decrease of almost 10%while compared to the maximum of last July (2,943 points), it fell 14.4%.
What are the reasons for this mini rally in Argentine bonds? “It is not clear what was the main driver of this escalation of the globals, where the weighted average price exceeded the threshold of $22, advancing to $22.55, which is its highest value in 15 wheels. The scenario The emerging market was more pleasant, but we cannot attribute the rebound either, especially given its magnitude. On the side of the Central Bank, the drivers do not come either. The monetary authority opened the week with a participation in the MULC with purchases for just US$ s3 million”commented from PPI.
For other operators, this rally was possibly fueled by radio statements by the national deputy of the Frente de Todos, Máximo Kirchner, who ruled out a possible candidacy of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner for the 2023 elections: “I think that Cristina is not going to be a candidate”, assured this Monday in an interview. All in all, some operators wondered in the market if you will raise them this Monday they do not configure signs of what many eagerly await: the “electoral trade”. We will check it in the next few days.
For now, the outstanding performance of the Argentine debt was accompanied this Monday by the Ecuadorian bonds, which also had significant increases within emerging and frontier markets.
Regarding the Argentine globals, the GD38 sovereign bond “has been the winning strategy”, According to Adcap: “We consider that it is the instrument that has the most risks incorporated in its price and serves as a foreign exchange hedge”they argued.
Analysts and operators do not rule out the next announcement of new measures that seek to rearrange the accounts in a quarter with lower settlements in the agricultural sector. Fears of a worsening of a global recession process, with higher interest rates and high inflation, deepen the risk aversion that conditions the local market.
“Financial markets are more sensitive to financial conditions than the real economy, more than in the past. And, as long as inflation and activity remain ‘hot’, the chances of a strong financial shock even without materializing (the) recession increase.” “Delphos Investment said regarding the global situation.
Meanwhile, in the segment of pesos, the dollar-linked sovereign bonds were ordered in the short tranche that rose by an average 0.4%, concentrating the volume on Q2V2 and TV23.
For their part, the duals had very little activity and closed mostly lower, losing an average of 0.6%.
Finally, Debt in pesos with CER adjustment was generally borrowing, with leceres rising 0.25%, while bonceres were heavier and closed with a marginal rise of 0.15%.
All eyes this week will be on the treatment in the 2023 Budget Congress. It is expected that the ruling party will obtain the necessary votes to be able to approve it. Also The evolution of the foreign exchange market will be important given that in the last week of each month the pressure on demand increases. At the same time, inflation for October will begin to be defined: the market is already projecting that it will be around 6%/6.5% per month.
ADRs and S&P Merval
Unlike the bond trend, Argentine company shares traded mostly down on Wall Street on Monday. The falls on the New York Stock Exchange were led by the shares of Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-3.5%); BBVA Bank (-3%); followed by those of Cresud (-2.7%). The roles of Central Port (-2.3%); Free Market (-2.2%) and Banco Macro (-2.2%).
On the other hand, the advances of Bioceres (+3.8%); YPF (+3.1%) ; Survive (+3%); Glonate (+2.5%); VistaEnergy (+1.8%); and Tenaris (+1.2%).
For its part, the leading stock index S&P Merval went on to gain 0.6%, to 139,733.39 units, after operating most of the wheel down due to short profit-taking. With the daily rise of 0.5%, the leading panel in dollars (CCL) closed at almost 460 points.
Among the actions that rose the most on the day, those of Northern Gas Carrier (+4.5%); Banco Supervielle (+3.3%) and YPF (+3.2%). Meanwhile, among the papers that fell the most were those of Central Port (-3.1%); Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-2.5%) and Cresud (-2.1%).
The volume traded in equities exceeded $7,477 million, of which $1,800 was in shares and more than $5,600 in Cedears.
So far this year, the S&P Merval has shown a positive return of 9.6% in CCL dollars (+30% in the last three months), in a context of global crisis, in which the main stock indices of The US and Europe accumulate losses of between 10% and 20%.
On Wall Street, the last full week of October started in the green, with the S&P500 climbing 1.2%, accumulating a rise of 5.9% so far this month. Meanwhile, the 10-year bond rate rose 3 basis points to 4.24%, while WTI oil fell 0.3% to $84.80.
On the other hand, Chinese shares listed in the United States skidded as much as 44% after President Xi Jinping began his third term, experts say, with more power than ever.
Source: Ambito
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