If we look at the behavior of the dollar, either the informal dollar or the MEP dollar are running below inflation. The blue dollar has not taken off and has had three consecutive months of exchange rate calm and losing against the returns of fixed terms (during August and September the blue closed with two falls). However, analysts are wary that the dollar can recover the ground lost in the last two months of the year and trust that the Government can deploy a battery of measures to discourage savers from going towards the dollar.
Under this scenario, it should be remembered that traditional placements are for a minimum period of 30 days, while those that adjust for UVA (inflation) have a base reserve period of 90 days to pay for that performance.
Fixed terms: yields in November and December
Based on the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) for the last two months of 2022, in November the UVA fixed term would beat the traditional one (6.95 vs. 6.16%). For December, the traditional fixed term and the UVA would be much closer (6.37% traditional vs. 6.57% UVA). Although the Central Bank has not yet signaled a new increase in the reference rate, what to do depends on each investor. In the event that portfolio dollarization is sought for the upcoming elections, the best option could be the traditional fixed term. Meanwhile, if you are looking to win by inflation and not redeem for three months, the UVA ends up being a good alternative.
The other option left for savers to position themselves is the option of fixed term UVA precancelable, that allows to “exit” in advance and withdraw the funds after 30 days of the constitution. The problem it presents is that if this option is “triggered”, the rent that is charged is lower than that offered by a traditional placement, since it is 71% per year.
Lastly, regarding UVA deposits, it should be taken into account that the Accumulated inflation from the 45 days prior to the date of placement of the funds.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
