Analysts warn that the blue dollar could exceed $300 before the end of the year

As for what factors influence its price, he trusted: “It is demand and supply. Their offer is quite wide. On the one hand there is tourism, those who come sell dollars in the informal market because they have a better price than the formal one. Anyone who bought in the informal market also sells it in the same market. The one who bought the $200 per month is also going to sell it to the blue. Many do not know the operation of the MEP dollar and going to the official is accepting $150 per dollar.”

But, “With a dollar that is perceived to be cheap and we are approaching months of greater demand for vacations and worldwide, that will influence its price” as “You have to pay $334 for the card dollar, when you buy the blue one for $290”Buteler exemplified. “More than one consumer is going to buy in the informal market and pay for the card with dollars, instead of accepting payment with the government dollar that comes with surcharges.”

The last time the blue dollar was above $300 was on July 28 when it hit $314.It should be remembered that in the seventh month of the year, the The parallel dollar had climbed $58 (+24.4%), which represents its biggest monthly advance of the year to date.

“What I see with the dollar is that there was an overshoot, it overheated, at the end of july and since then it has fallen consistently as it happened at other times with the current stocks, for example at the end of last year’s elections, in October 2021, and at the beginning of this year before the agreement with the IMF. A behavior of both the blue and the financiers, “he told this medium Juan Pablo Albordoz, economist at INVECQ.

For his part, the economist Federico Glustein, expanded that “apparently since that rise towards the end of September, the blue dollar remained below $295without tensions from macro policies, new prices promoted so as not to devalue, stocks or exchange restrictions or inflation close to 100%”.

In this regard, he indicated that “it is to be expected that the demand for blue will grow in the short term due to several factors: end-of-year bonuses and/or Christmas bonuses, outbound tourism and dollarization of portfoliosalthough this effect could occur closer to the end of the month, already with these variables in action, placing it initially above $295 to break above $300, around December“.

In that sense, he explained the reasons that would moderate its rise: “The calm in the financial markets of agents who leaned towards the rate in pesos, CER and dollar linked helps this transient calmfollowed by a demand for pesos for fall in consumption and production and in purchasing power that cuts savings, especially of people. In addition to that, small companies are tied to investing in pesos for year-end obligations, even selling dollars to cover them.”

As for the reasons that kept the parallel exchange rate stable, Bathrobe He believed that “the very strong rise in rates by the Central Bank also had an influence. You have an overshooting also fueled by this rise. The alternatives that you have to place those pesos and earn them are much better than those that existed months ago. With which it takes some fuel from the blue “and about this he warned: “It’s a risk for tomorrow because people start to look fondly at the dollar because it starts to get cheaper.”

“The BCRA and the Treasury have been making an important adjustment. The Central Bank contains all the pesos through the current account in Leliqs and passes”expanded the economist and added: “Those pesos are making a rate in the banks that support fixed terms, they are making a rate inside the Central Bank and on the other hand the true fuel of the blue, which is the amount of bills that are on the street, has been falling in real terms.”