Some private sector players, however, expect inflation to be above 100%: ECO GO projects 127%, BancTrust 118.8% and FIEL 118.2%. According to the 2023 Budget, the Government estimates that inflation next year will be around 60%.
For 2024on average they expect inflation to be at a 68.2% per year. “Inflation will accelerate further in 2023, driven by the depreciation of the peso and monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. More aggressive monetary tightening poses a downside risk, while energy price volatility is an upside risk.” rise”, they say in LatinFocus.
According to him Survey of Market Expectations carried out by the Central Bankinflation in 2023 will reach 96%, and in 2024 69.6%.
In the last four surveys, they also detected that the GDP estimate, what happened from a growth from 0.9% to 0.2% by 2023 and from 1.4% to 1.3% for 2024, according to the consensus of those consulted. Some of those consulted believe that even the GDP can to fall 2.8%, like EcoGo and FIELand who maintains that has room to grow up to 2.4% (EMFI).
“The pace of economic growth will slow markedly in 2023. Extremely high interest rates and inflationtogether with peso depreciation, will depress household spending. In addition, a gloomier global economic context will weigh on the foreign sector. And the political uncertainty before the October 2023 elections will affect private investment,” the report indicates.
As for the exchange rate, “the peso should lose even more ground in 2023 due to monetary issuance and high inflation“The parallel dollar is expected to end 2023 at $318.20 and in 2024 to be at $496.
Regarding the interest rateThey expect it to remain high, as agreed with the IMF to sustain real positive rates. The rates today are located at 75%, while they expect the 2023 take them to 76.09% and in 2024 they are located at 60.64%.
As regards the exportsthe consultants expect that fall 1.2%while imports will fall 1.4%. They estimate that the country will reach a trade surplus of $8.5 billion in 2023. For 2024 they expect exports to recover and climb 1.5%while imports would continue to fall, which would leave a trade surplus of US$11.7 billion.
Despite sustained inflation levels, consultants expect the private consumption is reduced by 0.2% in 2023, but grows by 1.6% in 2024.