Qatar dollar: next target of the blue and the financiers?

Dollar: at what point are we

According to Andres Reschini of F2 Soluciones Financieros, without a doubt the Qatar dollar was going to generate a kind of “arbitration of the TCs that had been considerably lower.” According to the analyst, in a scenario of relative calm like the one we had until last week, it was probable that the other TCs would arbitrate in some way towards the “Qatar” TC, making the caveat that the blue could be more disconnected because there We are talking about informal dollars and the expiration dates of the card are in the formal lane”.

However, in a week of currency stress, “the financial TCs could behave differently, even surpassing the TC for foreign trips.” Henceforth, Reschini adds that “everything will depend on the scenario in which we find ourselves in the remainder of the year.”

What are the factors to look closely at

For Aurum’s Head of Research, Pablo Repetto, the very implementation of the Qatar dollar brought the possibility of an “awakening” of financial dollars. According to him, “the gain produced by the carry between August and October plus the excess pesos that continued to exist in the economy, in a context of low credibility, were sufficient seasoning for the dollars to begin to move.” Traders who bet on the carry trade gained 18% against the dollar between July and October, as estimated by the chief economist of the consulting firm Arriazu Macroanalistas, Fernando Marengo. And so, the temptation of yields in pesos thanks to the 75% rate began to fade.

“Currently the values ​​of financial dollars are a little more in line with the level of pesos in the economy. We at Aurum closely follow the correlation that the CCL has had with the private M3 and until a few weeks ago we saw that relationship with very cheap financial dollars very misaligned. Today we are seeing a level of the CCL/MEP more appropriate to excess pesos, but the rate dynamics itself, very strict stocks, impossibility of access to BCRA currency to import and shortage of reserves leads us to remain very vigilant”.

December, the key month

Lastly, the economist Frederick Glustein in dialogue with Ambit He maintained that in the next few days there will be a “increased pressure on demand for foreign currency due to tourism, imports and dollarization of end-of-year portfolios with the collection of bonuses and Christmas bonuses.” In this way, “December could arrive with the CCL above Qatar and the MEP and the close blue”.

“The CCL will surpass the Qatar dollar before the end of the year and will probably remain above it while the MEP and the rest of the parallel prices will remain in orbit, but as the official depreciates at 6% per month, with taxes already set, the price of tourist expenses would be higher at least until the end of the year, unless a jump in the local macro generates a scenario of uncertainty such that the parallel exchange rate depreciation processes accelerate and both financial segments surpass Qatar. For now, such instability is not in sight, but in our country it would not be enough to affirm that the opposite will happen, “he concluded.