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Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Escalation of the blue dollar: why it shot up and how much it can reach at the end of the year

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For the economist, the increase in the demand for blue forces a rise in the day that although it is not to worry or alarm, it is a message. In this sense, she remarked that she matched her contribution with the MEP, something that had not been seen for weeks.

Before the question of what will happen in the short term? Glustein believes that “it will surely take a staggered form, that is, with increases that are not daily, but rather it may do so for one day and then calm down for three days and go up again.” “It is certain that by the end of the year the minimum will be $330 with expectations that it will reach $350 at some point in the year, especially when Christmas bonuses/bonuses are collected and the demand for tourism reaches a peak”hill.

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It should also be noted that the blue dollar had an even greater increase in the interior of the country. Although in the city of Buenos Aires it reached $319, In provinces such as Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego, the parallel dollar was obtained at no less than $324according to Infodolar, while in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Salta and Santa Fe it sold for $323.

To its turn, Natalia Motyl, economist and CEO of NM consultora, also in dialogue with Ámbito analyzed what happened with the blue dollar. “There are local and external factors that explain the greater pressure in the exchange market”said and expanded: “Regarding the international context: the rise in interest rates from the main central banks of the world that impacts emerging markets and the stabilization of commodity prices that anticipate the entry of fewer dollars from the external front”.

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On the other hand, among local factors, continued Motyl, is the decision of the BCRA to maintain an expansive monetary policy which implies keeping interest rates low in a context in which the rest of the countries are expansive and “the difficulties of accumulating reserves that impact on expectationsthe greater exchange restrictions that force many to go looking for dollars in the parallel market, the difficulties to meet the goals with the IMF and the political instability as we enter an election year”.

It should be noted that the parallel dollar ended the day with a rise of $7 and accumulates a rise of $13 in just three days, same variation that it registered during the past week. As for the CCL, it ended the day low but above $322, while the MEP grew 2.4% to $319.30.

In his analysis, the economic consultant Jorge Neyro He referred precisely to the performance of the parallel dollars and in this regard he opined that it is a nominal readjustment after months of stability. “This is not sustainable in an economy that has inflation rates of 6%. Little by little, the financial dollars are adjusting to the nominal rhythm of the economy without this being too disruptive“, he explained.

Regarding the short-term trend, he said that it continues to be bullish, “What happens is that perhaps the rhythm is not even. It may be that there are days with volatility but that the trend is upwards”, described. “That makes it difficult to forecast values,” she clarified but advanced that she considers that financial dollar can end up $350 or $360“without this representing any kind of shock to the market or the economy,” he closed.

Source: Ambito

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