Federico Glustein, economist consulted by Ámbito, the increase in the demand for blue forces a rise in the day that although it is not to worry or alarm, it is a message. In this sense, she remarked that she matched her contribution with the MEP, something that had not been seen for weeks.
Before the question of what will happen in the short term? Glustein believes that “it will surely take a staggered form, that is, with increases that are not daily, but rather it may do so for one day and then calm down for three days and go up again.” “It is certain that by the end of the year the minimum will be $330 with expectations that it will reach $350 at some point in the year, especially when Christmas bonuses/bonuses are collected and the demand for tourism reaches a peak,” he closed.
What impact will the soybean dollar have on the dollar
According to the market runrun, the soybean dollar will have little impact on the decline in financial dollars for several reasons. In principle, because it was a measure that was expected by the soybean complex, which brings little expectations to the market. Secondly, because although it will allow reserves to be restored and will signal that the Central Bank may have firepower in January and February, many producers who receive pesos as a result of the soybean liquidation seek to become dollarized, which could lead to a reverse movement and affect the rise of the dollar. More, taking into account the upcoming election year.
The third reason is that although the soybean dollar allows us to give positive signals: increased collection, recomposition of reserves, less monetary issue, the cost of issuing pesos to pay more than $200 per dollar does not tend to calm alternative dollars. , If not the opposite.
But as we anticipated at the beginning of this note, it will not be the soybean dollar that the market looks at the most, but rather the new debt tender.
Debt in pesos: why the market will closely watch tomorrow’s tender
This Monday there will be a new debt tender, in which the Economy will seek to renew maturities for $250,000 million. Within this framework, Monday’s tender is the most important test for Sergio Massa’s team since in August he managed to decompress maturities through a bond swap, an operation that he repeated but with much less success. It must be taken into account that the previous tender was read by the market as “quite bad”, which generated a jump in financial dollars.
This time and in the midst of a complex panorama of the debt in pesos for 2022, especially prior to the elections, “the Treasury will not offer instruments with maturities after the next PASO or adjustable by CER. By offering very short-term titles, it is possible that the result will improve, although this will not mean that the weakness will moderate for next year”, detailed a report by Ecolatina.
“Uncertainty continues in the debt market in pesos. Although the Government has been making efforts to meet the goal of the primary fiscal deficit of 2.5% of GDP this year, the stress of the debt market in pesos continues, with the need to finance the higher deficit and the maturities of 2023 in sight”, added the consultant’s document.
The lower net financing obtained in the last tenders and the low participation of the private sector in the recent exchange make Monday’s tender a key test.
Source: Ambito
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