The third quarter of 2023 is where Deutsche Bank sees worst estimates. The bank believes that markets are most likely “significantly lower”, with the S&P 500 reaching 3,250 points.
Regarding the fourth quarter of 2023, the entity estimates a recovery of the markets, with the main averages recovering from the lows of the recession. According to these experts, the S&P 500 could end 2022 at 4,200 points; and for 2023 these would be the estimates: 4,500 in the first quarter; 4,500 in the second; 3,250 in the third, and 4,500 in the fourth.
What can happen in emerging economies
S&P Global Ratings It lowered its growth forecast for emerging economies in 2023, citing pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and tight monetary policy conditions.
The rating agency now projects real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.8% for next year, up from its previous forecast of 4.1% expansion.
“The downward revision to growth comes from all EMs (emerging markets), excluding China and Saudi Arabia, with most economies poised to expand below their long-term trend rates.“, he said, adding that the forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain practically unchanged, averaging 4.3%.
While inflation in emerging markets has passed or will peak soon thanks to declining food and fuel inflation, it would remain above central bank targets in many economies, forcing monetary policies to remain restrictive, the agency warned.
“But slowing inflation, coupled with deteriorating growth prospects, could put monetary policy easing on the agenda in several emerging markets, especially in Latin America, by the middle of next year.”said S&P.
Source: Ambito
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