The S&P Merval gains 1.2% to 170,159.11 units, after marking an intraday all-time record of 169,260.71 points. “The local stock market index has accumulated a gain of more than 100% since the end of June when it began an upward trend that seems to have no end, at least in the short term,” said Mauro Natalucci, from Rava Bursátil. Meanwhile, the Merval in dollars operates at 521 points.
Operators estimate that the market will bring together the bulk of business in the first part of the session given that a key game of the Argentine soccer team in Qatar at 4:00 p.m. will slow down financial activity. A recent survey by Reuters estimates that world stock markets will rise slightly, but an unpromising year is coming.
In the Government they trust that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will end below 6%. For this to happen, the program was implemented Fair Prices in mass consumption products and, more recently, it has expanded towards fuels. In that scenario, the consultants private companies provide deceleration compared to 6.3% in October, although not all agree that the data will begin with 5. Within this framework, the Central Bank’s Board of Directors defines its monetary policy.
“While the slowdown in inflation (in November) is good news, the outlook ahead is challenging,” said Eugenio Marí of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
“Only between December and March 2023, the Treasury faces debt maturity for almost 4 trillion pesos, while the central bank (BCRA) is already close to accumulating 10 trillion pesos in remunerated debt. If financing in the domestic market begins to get complicated, as indicated by the latest tenders, this will leave the government more dependent on the monetary issue, which would accelerate inflation,” he estimated.
The Ministry of Economy took an additional 7,642 million effective pesos (45.8 million dollars) on Tuesday during the second round of the so-called ‘Market Makers Program’, which are added to the 219,050 million pesos raised in Monday’s bidding.
The Treasury “closed November with negative net financing of approximately 2,000 million (pesos),” said the StoneX brokerage, noting that “for the last month of the year, maturities total 410,000 million (pesos), of which it is estimated that the vast majority is in private hands.
Bonds and country risk
In the fixed income segment, sovereign bonds in dollars advanced up to 2% thanks to Global 2041, followed by Global 2046 (0.6%) and Bonar 2035 (0.2%). Conversely, the Bonar 2038 and the Bonar 2030 fell by -0.5%.
“Given the fragility of the debt in pesos, and financial dollars at attractive levels, a good part of the corporate players decided to turn to the Globals in dollars to apply part of the surplus in pesos“said Portfolio Personal Investments.
In this way, the country risk operates at a minimum of two and a half months at 2,311 basis points.
Source: Ambito
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