In turn, the MEP dollar rebounded $6.06 (+1.9%) to $318.57, with which the spread with the official reached the 89.9%. Thus, returned to be above the blue dollar, which fell $1 back to $313, so the gap with the official exchange rate reached 87.7%. It was the fourth drop in the parallel ticket line, conditioned by the beginning of the month, moment in which the demand for pesos grows in the face of seasonal obligations.
In the midst of intraday bullish threats, which in the market estimate that possibly they are cushioned with official interventionsfinancial dollars continue to go through a stage of tense calm after the last reset, in mid-November.
“The expectation continues that a rebound could be just around the corner, even after the higher seasonal demand for pesos at the end of the year, since it is perceived as lagging compared to inflation and the mountain of pesos in the economy, In addition to the fact that electoral processes accentuate the search for coverage”pointed out the economist Gustavo Ber.
This Friday, after a month of delay, the dollar will begin to work partially for foreign tourists, as confirmed by to Scope the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce. Mastercard will have it operational from this Friday and Visa will be added next week. The measure exempts payments made by “non-residents through debit, credit, purchase or prepaid cards issued abroad” from settlement in the exchange market. Specifically, tourists, with this benefit, will have access to the MEP dollar exchange rate, instead of the retail one (which operates at $175), thus discouraging them from going to exchange their bills for cash in the informal market. In the market, some believe that the measure It could be a mechanism that contributes to reducing the price of the MEP and reduce the gap with the officer.
official dollar
For his part, the wholesale dollar rose 44 cents (0.25%), to $167.72in a market with liquidity regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA)at times when the special exchange rate of $230 to encourage soybean exports and strengthen the entity’s reserves.
As usually happens at the beginning of each month, the BCRA markedly accelerated the rate of devaluation of the peso. “The crawling-peg stood at a daily TNA of 93.8% (vs. 65.6% on Wednesday), which represents the highest daily speed since September 6 for the official dollar”They commented from PPI.
The validity of a special dollar for soybean exporters until the end of the year allowed the monetary entity to buy 5.8 million dollars this Thursday, with which accumulated acquisitions for about 344 million dollars in the last four business sessions.
“With the ‘soybean dollar II’, if the BCRA ended with net purchases of 1,950 million dollars, the monetary impact would come from a net issue of 510,000 million pesos, equivalent to 11.5% of the monetary base,” estimated the Mediterranean Foundation.
“In turn, the implicit exchange rate between accumulated dollars and issued pesos would be 261.4 pesos per dollar, 52% higher than the average official wholesale dollar, which applies to the rest of foreign trade operations,” he pointed.
Agro-exporters sold 1.16 million tons of soybeans 21/22 between Monday and Wednesday, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. According to the latest official grain sales data available, in the week of November 17 to 23, before the official measure, a total of 188,100 tons of 2021/22 soybeans had been sold.
“At this rate, the soybean dollar II would end December with settlements for more than US$4.4 billion with net purchases by the BCRA of over US$2.8 billion,” projected from Delphos Investment.
The BCRA’s gross reserves increased by US$178 million, up to US$38,183 million, driven by the strong rise in gold. To the international assets of the monetary authority will be added US$500 million from a loan from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved on Wednesday, and aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change.
dollar in the world
The dollar fell on Thursday to 16 week minimums in the world against a basket of peer currencies, after data showing that the US consumer spending increased in Octoberwhile the inflation moderatedit raised expectations that the Federal Reserve is closer to reaching an interest rate ceiling.
The decline in the dollar came after the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said that it was time to rein in rate hikes, noting that “slowing down at this point is a good way to balance risks.”
Investors were comfortable with the comments, even as Powell also said rates would continue to rise and that reining in inflation “will require keeping policy tight for some time.”
“We see that the consumer is still keeping up with their spending and, furthermore, the claims for unemployment benefits are increasing. So, we will probably start to see the unemployment rate go up and I think this will support the idea that we will see the unemployment rate rise.” The Fed is close to ending its tightening cycle,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA in New York.
Data on Thursday showed that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6% rise in September.
The dollar index fell to 104.66 against a basket of currencies, the lowest level since August 11, and is now below its 200-day moving average, which could signal more pullbacks ahead. For its part, the euro reached 1.05340 dollars, a maximum since June 29.
The dollar fell to 135.24 yen, its lowest level against the Japanese currency since August 18. Sterling hit $1.23115, the highest threshold since June 27.
Federal funds rate futures traders now expect the Fed’s top rate to top out at 4.87% in May, up from 3.83% today. Traders had considered a cap of more than 5% before Powell’s comments on Wednesday.
Source: Ambito
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