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Sunday, February 5, 2023

S&P Merval and bonds cut bullish rally, but climbed up to 8.5% in the week

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In the leading panel, the biggest rises were for the shares of Mirgor (+7.7%), Telecom Argentina (+5.6%) and Cablevisión Holding (+4.6%). While, those that fell the most were Central Puerto (-4.5%), Banco BBVA (-3%) and Aluar (-2.5%).

“The Merval faces December with a good margin to close the year with profits”estimated Portfolio Personal Inversiones. “Beyond the fragility of the debt in pesos and the implementation of the new ‘soybean dollar’ scheme, the main factor in the rally is in the hands of (the president of the United States Federal Reserve -Fed- Jerome) Powell,” added.

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Regarding the international context, Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed could reduce the pace of monetary tightening as early as December, while a data followed by the Fed showed signs of moderation in inflation.

However, in the day, data from a solid labor market dragged Wall Street lower, ending the Dow Jones with a 0.1% gain to 34,429.88 points, while the technological nasdaq registered a 0.2% loss to 11,461.50 units, and the Expanded S&P 500 Index decreased 0.1% to 4,071.70 points.

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This happened after knowing the employment data for November in the United States, which was higher than expected by analysts: more than 230,000 jobs were created and wages rose 0.6%. This variable puts in doubt the hopes of a relief in the US monetary policy because pressure on inflation and that has a negative impact on the world’s stock markets.

For their part, Argentine shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange aligned themselves with falls on Wall Street and ended with the majority of losses. Among them stood out central port (-4.1%), black hill (-3.6%) and bbva bank (-3.5%). Although four companies finished higher: irsa (+6.5%), Telecom Argentina (+6.3%), Galician Financial Group (+1.1%) and Free market (+0.4%).

Bonds and country risk

In the dollar fixed income segment, after a rally of several days, the bonds They closed the day with widespread casualties, but in the week accumulated rises of 8.5%. those who higher losses they had were the Global 2035(-6.3%), the bonar 2042(-1.7%) and the bonus 2030(-1.7%). Y went up the Global 2041(+2.4%) and the Global 2046(+0.8%).

“Long-duration bonds are shaky, amid doubts over peso debt financing next year in an election year, and in the face of expectations of a devaluation of the Argentine peso,” said Research for Traders.

“Local law bond returns show an average IRR of 32.8%, while New York law bonds offer an average yield of 30.8%,” he added.

Between the CER-adjusted peso securities rose 0.4% in the short tranche and 0.6% in the long tranche; and, in the last five days, the short leg gained 1.9%, while the long leg rose almost 9%.

In this frame, country risk advanced 1.6% to settle at 2,248 basis points.

Source: Ambito

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