Condemns Cristina Kirchner: how can it impact the markets?

However, can it be said that this is a reflection of the ruling and the statements of Christina of this tuesday? The first thing that the voices of the market mention in their visions is that it must be taken into account that, although it is a significant blow to the ruling party, It is not yet a final ruling since the sentence will be appealed. In this sense, the economist Joel Lupierifrom Epyca Consultores, gave his opinion in dialogue with Ambit that, “For now, it is not expected that it will have much impact.”

Condemns Cristina: this is how the market reads her

And, as regards the inability to hold public office, and even his decision to not apply in 2023the analysts observe that “it is still a remote possibility that it be closed in the electoral race and it does not seem viable that the market interpret this ruling positively or negatively.”

For his part, from the Fundación de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo (FIDE), the chief economist of the consultancy, Nicholas Zeollaobserves that “the link between the legal case and the Economic Situation It’s not that immediate.” Thus, he considers that it will be necessary to see how events continue to evolve in order to assess the real impact on the markets. And it is that, without a doubt, now the Government will have to see how it is reconfigured after the coup against the Vice President and how it stops in the face of the 2023 presidential election if it is really confirmed the decision of Cristina Kirchner not to apply.

But not only in the electoral field will the management of Alberto Fernández have to be reconsidered, what happened can also affect his credibility and strength. In fact, the Government has the challenge of continuing to place debt to finance the Treasure, predictability going forward and the possibility of continuity (although it is very difficult to guarantee it now) will be key in this process. How the processes of treasury tender It is one of the topics that the market looks at the most these days.

And it is that, as indicated by Zeolla “still there are just over 3 weeks left to close the year and take definitions about the final results, such as how much to issue”. Therefore, the issue of debt in pesos is a central element.

He also points out that “today, the forex market It is characterized by the validity of the soybean dollar II”. This is a central issue for the evolution of the exchange market for the coming weeks. “The Cristina sentence may affect the markets on Wednesday, but what influences the most is the evolution of the soybean dollar,” adds another market source.

He also provides a comment regarding the debt in pesos, pointing out that it is worrisome, on the one hand, the growing issuance of pesos that is being demanded these days by the Central Bank (BCRA) the need to intervene in the peso bond market.

“Although in recent days some specific purchase orders for some fundsit is very little and the BCRA it continues to acquire bonds,” he warns. And he considers that the problem could be aggravated by two seasonal elements:

1. at the end of the year people you want to cover and usually goes to dollarso that y begins to come out of the investments in pesos;
2. and, on the other hand, there is the fact that many investors usually withdraw from some stock market instruments at this time to avoid the heavy tax burdens that usually come with the end of the tax year.

The concern of the markets is placed on the debt in pesos

Thus, although the ruling and the announcement by the same condemned woman not to compete in the upcoming elections as a candidate they condition the social and political humor, without a doubt, it could not have as much incidence, at least immediately in the markets.

Many in the City believe at this time that, if it had an effect, it could be upward, because the markets could read it as a positive sign that would confirm a change in the political and economic course by 2024, but the truth is that they maintain that it What will really be decisive will be the result of the appeal, a process that could take years.