Thus, before the Scaloneta thrashed the Croats and managed to settle in the final of Qatar 2022, it was known that US consumer prices in November rose just 0.1% (0.3% was expected), since the cost prices for gasoline and used cars fell, which represented the smallest annual increase in inflation in almost a year, standing at 7.1%.
A drop in inflationary pressure raises expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could ease its aggressive stance on interest rate hikes and drives risk markets, includingthe emerging ones, which infected the Argentine titles.
Although they did not have a superlative performance, as Lionel Messi and Julián Álvarez showed on Tuesday, Argentine bonds registered widespread advances on the Buenos Aires stock market, led by the Bonar 2035 (+2.9%); Bonar 2028 (+1.6%); and Global 2038 (+1.5%).
In New York, for its part, the podium was made up of Global 2035 (+2.3%), Global 2041 (+1.8%), and Global 2029 (+1.8%), with which accumulated in two days a rise of 4%.
Consequently, the Argentine country risk measured by JPMorgan it fell 2.1% to 2,230 basis points.
“The November US CPI data generated contagious euphoria. The entire emerging universe was boosted by the tailwind of an international environment that he breathed with relief. Argentina knew how to ride the wave,” they said from PPI.
On the other hand, with a good volume of business, sovereign bonds in dollar-linked pesos operated mixed, since while the TV23 remained almost unchanged, the longest ones fell 0.8%. Regarding the CER segment, while the Leceres gained 0.3%, the Bonceres lost 0.2%.
This Wednesday, the market’s attention will focus both on the Fed, which will probably announce a 50 basis point rate hike, and on the tender by the Argentine Ministry of Economy, which will offer Treasury securities with which it will seek to cover maturities for about 413,000 million pesos.
Economy will tender one Lelite on 12/30/22, two Ledes (S31M3 and S28A3), one Lecer (X21A3), two dollar-linked bonds (TV23 and T2V3), the 2027 Bonte and a new dollar-linked bond exclusive for registered importers in AFIP and Customs.
S&P Merval and ADRs
Unlike the fixed income segment and the Scaleneta, the stock market showed an unstable operationwhere he S&P Merval it lost 0.6%, to 165,500.37 units, after falling 2.8% in the previous session. The most important falls of the day were recorded by Telecom (-6.4%) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-2.4%).
was in tune with the performance of Argentine paper listed on Wall Street, which reversed the initial increases, and fell to almost 6%, with falls led by Telecom (-5.7%), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-3%); Y Central Port (-2.3%).
Among the few hikes of the day, Globant climbed 6.1%, Tenaris, 3.6%, Grupo Supervielle, 2.6%, and YPF, 0.6%.
For their part, the US stock markets rose on Tuesday after the lower-than-expected rise in consumer prices injected some optimism, because the Federal Reserve could soon reduce its pace of interest rate hikes to control inflation, but there are still concerns that the Central Reserve could continue to be aggressive.
The benchmark S&P 500 index rose as much as 2.8% in the session, hitting a three-month high, after reports that US consumer prices for November were barely up. The data supported expectations of smaller and slower Federal Reserve rate hikes helped lift indices sensitive to the cost of credit, with the S&P 500 growth index and S&P 500 housing rising.
But towards the closing the advances moderated: the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 4,019.31, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 11,255.29, and the Dow Jones Average rose 0.3% to 34,116.91.
Fed funds futures prices hinted that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this week by half a point is discounted, with hikes of less than 25 basis points for its first two meetings of 2023, and without reaching 5% in March.
Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, now sees even smaller Fed rate hikes, 25 basis points at the February meeting, and none in March, leaving the top Fed funds rate at 4.625. %.
“There was some excitement at first that the CPI number once again came in below expectations, showing some cooling afterwards, but once we saw that initial rally, investors reassessed the stock,” said Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group.
“That probably took some of the steam out of the markets once investors realized that tomorrow could very well be (Fed Chairman) Jerome Powell throwing cold water on today’s rally.”
Infected by optimism for the future, the oil Brent climbed 3.1% recapturing the $80 level ($80.47), while WTI added +2.7% to $75.18.
Finally, US Treasury rates tipped lower. The 10-year rate fell to levels of 3.5%, and the shorter 2-year rate did the same, to 4.2%. Indeed, the dollar weakened with the DXY Index breaking 104 points (103.59).
Source: Ambito
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