At the opening of Wall Street, Argentine ADRs start with the majority of losses in the premarket: the shares of Argentine companies they fell to 2.69% thanks to Pampa Energía, Transportadora Gas del Sur (-2.56%), Banco Macro (-2.31%), YPF (-2%) and IRSA (-1.82%) . While the only ones that rise in the pre-opening are those of Edenor (+1.37%), Central Puerto (+0.56%) and Supervielle (+0.85%). Meanwhile, the shares that make up the Dow Jones show an upward trend, while those of the S&P500 and Nasdaq have a mixed trend.
What the market expects for the US rate
These data reflect that the market Hope your expectation is confirmed. “It discounts a rise of 0.50%, so if there are no surprises, optimism will continue,” anticipates Javier Marcus, economist at the Southern Trust.
In this context, the analyst warns that “the rate hike affects the Argentine bonds”, but it stands out that since October there has been a better performance than the average of the emerging countries. Thus, he explains that “although the correlation is high and the rise in rates affects prices, there are positive idiosyncratic factors.”
However, from the Bull Market Brokers Research team, they consider that, since the rate hike It will be as expected, “the most important thing will be the view they give at the press conference” of the announcement. And it is that, although the inflation figures, the core data is still at high values. In this sense, they warn that “the fed he cannot let his guard down because he could reactivate it if he gives wrong signals”.
Thus, they expect a “hawkish” (hard) bias to remain, but giving indications of a rise close to 25 points in February and that, starting in March, the rate will stop rising.
Consequently, the tendency to capital outflow from emerging markets towards the centrals that has been seen in recent times would remain, but it could begin to reverse towards next year if the fed he takes a more moderate policy as he is expected to do.
Treasury debt placement: the local variable that the markets look at
Meanwhile, for the second variable that today will determine market dynamicswhich is the treasury tenderfrom the Bull Market Brokers Reasearch Group, warn that it is to be expected “that the bidding process will be successful due to all the compulsive participants that it will have”.
And it is that they indicate that, for the first time, Massa managed to get even the provinces to disarm position in Fixed deadlines and bid the letters. Also, there will be participation of the banks with the BONTE 2027, linked to the increase in reserve requirements per soybean dollar II.
In this context, they do not expect the Treasury to come out this Wednesday with an effective rate higher than the previous tender, which was in around 118% TEA vs 95% of a fixed term. On the other hand, they highlight the fact that a dollar-linked bill will be offered for the first time, “which, due to the time space it has for importers, qualifies more as a bill than a bond” (it is a bond with zero coupon).
Source: Ambito
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