In a key week: 3 facts to keep in mind about the dollar and Christmas bonus

Key 1: dollar savings, a difficult option

First of all, it should be mentioned that, without a doubt, those who can buy dollar savings (although they are less and less due to the successive obstacles of the stocks that were applied) they will go with part of the Christmas bonus to obtain their quota of US$200 allowed.

“Among the most profitable options to invest the bonus, is the purchase of dollar savings as a viable option, although it is not open to everyone”, he begins by telling Ámbito Ignacio ZorzoliFinance Director of the Argentina XXI Center for Economic Studies (CEEAXXI).

And it is that, this is a very good choice taking into account that, although the Central Bank (BCRA) The official exchange rate has been appreciating at a rate of around 6% per month in recent months, the price of the savings dollar continues to be low compared to the others: it traded at $294.5 this Wednesday, against a blue which is $320 for sale.

“Among the most profitable options to invest the bonusis the purchase of official dollar as a viable option, although it is not open to everyone”, says Zorzoli.

However, given that a large part of the workers cannot access the savings dollar for various reasons and that the quota is barely US$200 for those who do have that possibility, it is very likely that a large part will go to the blue, which already He is feeling the pressure of the Christmas bonus, since it jumped $8 in two days.

Key 2: the blue dollar, an illegal place and not always convenient

However, the blue dollar is bought in a illegal market and that it is not always convenient for the buyer’s pocket. Also, these days is on the rise and it is already on the heels of the stock dollar (MEP), which is trading at $322 in these hours. However, many see it as a good alternative in the face of annual inflation that will exceed 100% this year.

Thus, the economist of Grupo Broda Elena Alonso comments Elena Alonso describes that “many people are going to the market of Dolar blue because he has many obstacles that do not allow him to access the different legal dollars”, but he recommends that an alternative to dollarize the pesos without going to the illegal one is to go to an investment fund tied to the linked dollar or to inflation.

“For investors accustomed to operating in the markets and as a good form of coverage, the option of CER-tied bonds it is still interesting to take it into account, since they are bonds that adjust capital based on inflation”, says Zorzoli in the same vein.

And consider that another alternative would be dollarize portfolio through sub-sovereign bonds such as CO26 or PMM29, bonds from the province of Córdoba or Mendoza, which are payable in dollars. “These bonds pay rent and amortization in dollar bills, and an important element to take into account is that none of these provinces defaulted on their debt,” he explains.

Key 3: financial dollars, Cedears and bonds, another option

For Lucio Garay Mendezeconomist at the consulting firm EcoGo, for his part, “the financial dollars they have a little more room to rise these days”, so they could be an interesting option and he explains that this is due to the surplus of pesos poured into the economy in December for different reasons (soybean dollar, plus interest from Leliqs and most likely monetary financing from the BCRA to the Treasury) will put pressure on those exchange rates in particular.

Finally, Zorzoli suggests that it may be a good option to start placing the balance in business cedears strong North American stocks to hold for the long term. This option would be a way to take advantage of the fall in the S&P and the NASDAQ in 2022, which is taking place these days, in a delicate international scenario and still with considerable inflation in the United States.

Diego Martinez Burzacodirector of Inviu, sees it as an interesting alternative to dollar MEP and It also puts as an option to go towards a common fund that invests in negotiable obligations in dollars or to make a basket of financial assets that follow the CER. He also views Cedears as attractive instruments.

However, he points out that not all investment recommendations are valid for all investors. “It depends a lot on the client’s profile.: if it is very conservative or not”, he points out. And, in this sense, Alonso provides his advice: “you have to think about how long you can leave the weights unused.” He comments that if they have the possibility of doing it for more than three months, they have to go to the dollar or some asset tied to that currency.