The main element that threatens the development of this variable is the rate hike that the Central Bank (BCRA) has been carrying out to counteract the inflationary escalation and discourage the demand for foreign currency, but as the source warns, “the problem with that is that it impacts on the access to family credit.”
High rates and low wages: a problem to be solved
Thus, according to Fabio Rodríguez, director of MyR Consultores, “the credit to families It is destroyed”. Warning that this is the product, as was said, of high rates (remember that in September the monetary policy rate was raised to 75%, with a TEA OF 107%, which is equivalent to an effective monthly yield of 6.25%) .
But the economist adds one more element: Rodríguez warns that this is combined with a situation of low salaries with respect to inflation (which was 4.9% in October), which further deepens the low elasticity of financing in families that already generates an increase in the cost of the credit rate (active).
“Also, products that perform a little better, such as Credit cardsEven with the current nominal value, the banks do not increase the purchase and financing amounts due to risk policies, with which this instrument is also being increasingly strangled”, explains Rodríguez.
The Government project to reactivate family credit
In this situation, The Government plans to work together with banks and other credit actors on instruments that facilitate access to credit for families in the most affected sectors beyond the programssuch as Ahora 12 that is currently in force and the rate subsidies that are implemented for certain types of consumption.
One of the elements on which, without a doubt, the Economy team should focus is on the motives for lending money that entities have todaygiven that, as Rodríguez points out, “although income will improve, banks have no incentive to lend since they place all the surplus in bills at 75%.”
In this context, he warns that it is a job that must be done to rebuild a financial system aimed at companies and familiesbecause it points out that, at this moment, the main role it is fulfilling is that of “being an arm of monetary policy and a relief wheel for the Treasury.”
Of course, all this will only be successful within the framework of a forceful strategy of lowering inflation and, at some point, it can also lead to a reduction in rates so that the borrowing capacity of people improve in real terms.
Source: Ambito
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