Investments 2022: fixed term or blue dollar, which was the winner of the year?

The Economist Frederick Glustein shares a more disaggregated analysis of the performance of the instruments: “In the case of the fixed term, it began the year with a rate of 37% and after several increases, on September 18 it brought it to the nominal annual rate of 75% with a TEA of 107%, that is, only in that rise in September could we say that the rate is relatively higher than inflation“, he said in dialogue with Ámbito.

Glustein also involves another variable when analyzing the results: “In this regard, the loss compared to inflation, in case of renewing month to month, would be approximately 23% in the year if it had been invested exclusively under that mechanism”.

The same can be applied in the case of choosing to invest in the US currency: “In relation to the Dolar bluethe price went from $208 at the beginning of the year, the nominal rise is close to 68% with inflation around 95%. That is, keeping dollars throughout the year, the approximate negative yield is 26%, not counting US inflation which is at 7%, therefore the loss is greater“.

Although both investments were affected when compared against inflation and even more if the rise in international prices is added, one of these tools offers greater flexibility to obtain profit in the short term: “Due to the rigidity of the first option, the intraday movements and the escalations of the parallel currency allowed certain curls to be made to maximize profitso being active and predatory traders, the real profit of the blue in relation to the fixed term is greateralthough as is known, dollars are generally kept with little movement”.

Juan Pablo Albornoz, an economist at Invecq, shares the perspective. “Beyond the fact that the fixed term won the dollar minimally (between 72% and 80% yielded depending on the moment in which the placement was made at the beginning of the year due to how the rate rise occurred), the blue dollar in the year advances 68%. Personally I think that the risk that was run by being in a fixed term for more than having minimally earned the dollar is not justified with the ex post return“.

Albornoz also insists on the need to see the temporal development of the instruments: “In June and July, as well as in the last two months, the returns measured in dollars that a traditional fixed term generated evaporated“.

It also draws attention to the competitiveness of other tools when it comes to assessing profits: “The situation ofl local equity or even some sovereign CER bonds such as TX23 that even the June-July crisis and the current stress through they still run over the ticket“.

The consultant Salvador Di Stefano add another tool as the winner of the year and point as absolute winner of 2022 to UVA fixed terms, since they yielded an annual rate of 92.7%while the traditional fixed term granted 78.1% and the blue dollar increased 69%.

What to invest in in 2023

Looking ahead to next year, as was known this week, the Central Bank analyzes possible interest rate reductions. Three months ago, the entity has not modified the reference rate despite resorting to the instrument in an attempt to contain inflation and the commitment assumed with the IMF to maintain positive real interest rates. However, from the monetary entity they pointed out to Reuters that the proportion of the rate cut has not been determined and that it will be subject to the dynamics of next year and the performance of the main variables.

“By 2023, the BCRA expects to maintain the real interest rate and the dynamics of the parallel will depend on the economic context and the electoral results. Thus, until August we could think of a higher return on the fixed term but in hindsight, the blue will have the upper hand in the race between both instruments”, anticipates Glustein.

For Di Stefano, attention must be paid to the political context: “In 2023 the blue dollar is going for revenge. But you have to diversify your portfolio. When there are presidential elections, like in 2023, you have to diversify.”