The Buenos Aires stock market comes from being a world star with an increase of 142.02% last year in pesos, while during this first two-month period a reduction in the BCRA reference rate has not been ruled out.
Economists and analysts give their opinion on the situation in Argentina, with a Monday that projects less liquidity due to a holiday in the United States markets: “With the ‘soybean dollar II’ closed, the operators anticipate a lower supply of currencies until the next harvest, on top of the risk represented by the (climatic) drought, for which the central bank’s sales could return to the scene and thus put pressure on reserves”, projected the economist Gustavo Ber.
“The basis of Argentina’s current problems is the loss of financing, and by trying to solve problems with few tools, other problems are created, one of which is issuance,” reflected Javier Timerman of Adcap Grupo Financiero.
“This will stop when it is possible to go from a vicious process to a virtuous one. That will happen when the investment arrives” in the country, he said.
Attention about reservations
“The net reserve goal for December would be met with last week’s foreign exchange earnings, which provides some peace of mind in view of the upcoming review of the agreement with the IMF”Delphos Investment reported.
He maintained that “however, in January and February the tensions in the exchange market would return due to the reduction in wheat exports, the deferred payments of imports, the deficit in the service account and the payment of debt services ‘hard dollar ‘ on January 9”.
“To the Argentine macroeconomic imbalance is added the end of the ‘soybean dollar’ regime and the (climatic) drought that will affect future field liquidations. All this puts the central bank’s reserves in the future, with the context of an electoral year (2023) in the background,” said the financial app Banza.
“The Government begins the year with a debt swap proposal in the middle of this week, in the style of others executed in 2022, with the idea of postponing maturities to meet goals basically committed to the IMF”explained a bank agent.
“If a very favorable stroke of luck does not occur, before the middle of this year 2023, serious financial problems could occur. The basic solution would be to have a surplus in the current balance and the treasury for figures of that order,” he stressed. VaTnet Financial Research.
“In the midst of economic turbulence, Sergio Massa took over at the head of the Ministry of Economy at the beginning of August, determined to deepen the previous course of economic policy in the face of the prevailing objective of appeasing the imminent crisis and avoiding a disorderly devaluation,” said the Ecolatina consultant.
He added, as a review of 2002, that “within the framework of this pragmatic shift, policies were announced throughout the August-December period based on three main edges: strengthening the debt market in pesos and reducing excess demand in the exchange market, and, on the other hand, stop the inflationary shock”.
“To meet the goals with the IMF, the Government made a questionable accounting of what was disbursed by the (called) ‘soybean dollar'”, warned a report from the Liberty and Progress Foundation.
Source: Ambito
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