The blue dollar at record levels: will it catch up with the Qatar dollar or stop the escalation?

Among the causes of this recent rise, he said that “it must be considered that agents who have surplus pesos see the dollar as attractive and the only one easily accessible is bluethe financiers require some steps and a parking lot that not everyone is willing to accept and then there is still a part of the population that still demands tourism despite being already in the second week of January”.

As for financial dollars, the trend is the other way around. The CCL falls 0.3% and is reached at $333.09 while the MEP falls 0.3% to $326.29.

Glustein says that these exchange rates “have been trending towards stability, in part, due to some interventions at the closing of the MEP, as well as due to the smaller number of operations in place for the date of the year in which we are and the rise of the Merval and the papers give it that vigor that allows them to remain calm until the demand increaseswhich could be closer towards the end of the month.

In this sense, the economist expressed, “the different maneuvers of the economic team to guarantee reserves allow it to give a bit of air to the financial market as well.”

How the international context influences

Natalia Motyl, economist and CEO of NM consultingin dialogue with Ámbito, opined that “the institutional crisis in Brazil and the depreciation of the real is affecting Argentina due to the close commercial ties with this country. On the other hand, the rise in interest rates at the beginning of December from the world’s main central banks has an impact on emerging currencies. By last, the threat of an economic slowdown in China and the USA for the second quarter of this year“.

“All these factors come together so that investors cover themselves by demanding more foreign assets,” he said, but he also mentioned local factors such as “the decision of the BCRA of a more lax monetary policy in the first quarter of this year makes foreign currency assets more attractive and the swap with China to pay for imports once again positioned reserves in negative territory; clear signal to investors that the monetary policy authority is running out of firepower to deal with a run on the peso.”

Finally Motyl, assured that The drought throughout the country predicts a lower inflow of dollars for the coming months which also influences to put pressure on the exchange market.

How far can the blue dollar go?

Glustein opined that “as to whether the blue is going to reach the tourist dollar I am somewhat skeptical, at least these days, because the official continues to depreciate daily while the blue has not yet taken off again. There is a $15 difference that is not negligible as a gap, in addition to the fact that tourists know that they have a quota of $300 with a dollar cap on a card that is close to $330 and has a tax refund, therefore, they evaluate it before attacking strong to blue”.

For Motyl, “financial dollars have another trend because many are buying bonds at this time of year to pay less personal property taxes. But it is very probable that they end up correcting upwards. In addition, the vacation season always puts pressure on what the informal is going to demand. Today the Qatar dollar is the reference. Most likely, all the dollars will end up in these values ​​”, and he predicted: “It is very likely that they will reach $380 in the next few weeks.