Thus, with a production of wheat of 12.4 million tons and of the barley Of 3.8 million tons already almost completed, the BCBA grounded its first production estimates for coarse grains 2022/23, which they already considered a drop compared to the 2021/22 campaign.
First scenario: the moderate
The first scenario projects a soybean production of 41 million tons, while corn would reach 44.5 million and sunflower 3.7 million tons. This would imply a reduction compared to the first production forecasts of the entity made in September of 7 million tons in the case of soybeans, 5.5 million tons in corn and 200,000 tons in sunflower.
In the case of exports, the moderate scenario for soybeans poses a 21% drop compared to the previous cycle to US$34,137 million (US$ -9,226 million)
Second scenario: the pessimist
The second scenario poses a more pronounced drought, estimates a soybean production of 35.5 tons, while corn would be 37.8 million and sunflower 3.5 million tons.
Taking these scenarios into account, added to the practically consummated production drops in wheat and barley, it is expected that the Gross Agroindustrial Product (PBA) in the moderate approach will be located at US$42,136 million.
This would imply a drop of US$6,958 million compared to what was expected at the beginning of the campaign and of US$11,025 million compared to the 2021/22 cycle.
Meanwhile, a pessimistic scenario would place the contribution to the economy at US$37,418 million, US$11,676 million less than in the first projections and US$15,743 million compared to the previous season.
“Putting the dimensions of these losses in context and, considering the latest IMF projections on Argentina’s GDP for the year 2023, which would be US$643,797 million, the drop in the first scenario is equivalent to 1.1% of the GDP, while the pessimistic would have a negative impact equivalent to 1.8%”, highlighted the BCBA.
The value chain of soy would have the greatest drop in their contribution to the economy, since their contributions would decrease between US$3,320 and US$6,308 million depending, while, in the same tune, the contributions of corn would fall between US$1,479 and US$3,111 million.
Losses are estimated at US$14,115 million to US$29,248 million, equivalent to revenues 33% lower than last year.
This drop in shipments could lead to revenues via export duties falling between 18% and 27% compared to the previous campaign.
Source: Ambito
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