In this global context of recession plus inflation, the interest rate will be the variable to monitor throughout the year. Definitely, the Fed’s benchmark rate will determine what happens to the global market.
Considering this scenario, global investors will be more cautious when it comes to rebalancing their portfolios at the beginning of the year.
As for investments in fixed income, a conservative attitude will prevail, through investment in United States Treasury bonds. However, we believe that there will be many and very good opportunities for investors who are more aggressive.
But these aggressive bets will require very exhaustive monitoring and analysis of the credit, operating, financial and governance conditions of the companies in which to invest.
Additionally, the investor in corporate income will have to take into account not only the selected company, but also the sector and its prospects, as well as the macro variables of the country where they operate.
How to dollarize portfolios: a strategic bet
For more than a year, Adcap Grupo Financiero has been recommending the oil & gas industry, which continues to break production records. We also suggest investments in the sector of renewable energies, which will have a key participation this year in the demand for energy.
Currently and at the Latin American level, we believe that there are opportunities within Chile, in the bonds of AES Andes, Colbún and Enel. Also, in AEGEA Finance in Brazil and Ecopetrol in Colombia.
For a more aggressive investor, it seems to us that Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), Petrobras and YPF could be good betsalways closely following the politics of each country -which with the recent and upcoming electoral periods will be moved- and also monitoring the price of oil.
With respect to BrazilFor example, we do not believe that recent political events may affect the credit quality of companies, but even so volatility in assets appears.
At the local level, public and private investment are highlighting the importance of developing energy resources. Record oil and gas production levels, advances in the status of all infrastructure projects in the energy sector, and long-term tenders awarded in the Gas.AR plan seem to show that all Argentines agree with the development of this strategic industry, so important for the future of the country.
We believe that all these advances are very positive for companies like YPF, Pampa Energía, Capex, Compañía General de Combustibles (CGC) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), among others.
So far the industry indicators are very good, and we estimate that during 2023 they will continue to be so.
In this sense, the corporate bonds are an interesting way to dollarize portfolio and do it cautiously, given the growth of the sector, while the shares of these companies could be more aggressive, or for another type of profile willing to take risks.
Corporate Debt Strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero
Source: Ambito
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