The stock market week confirmed its trend: how the dollars, bonds and shares closed

This week also blue broke its nominality record every day, except for Monday when it traded at the same level as the previous Friday.

Thus, the blue records 8 weeks of consecutive increases and the gap with the wholesale official is already at 107.8%.

Among the causes of the sustained increase in the blue, some analysts point to seasonality and lower supply. Since EcoGothe Economist Juan Delich points out that “the lower dollar offer blue in January tends to be a specific seasonal issue, but it is usually offset by a stronger initial demand for pesos due to vacations in the country.”

The economist from Epyca Consultores expressed the same sense, Joel Luperi: “Clearly there is a seasonal component that is reinforced with the fortnightly change, but consider that this is compounded by the fact that the measures to repurchase debt and raise the repo rate for banks, which were announced last week, have probably lost some of their initial impact on the expectations of depreciation of the peso”.

Another cause is the lower supply injected into the parallel market by tourists who saw their card purchases gain competitiveness thanks to the Government’s measure that these payments are reported at the value of the MEP dollar. The economist expert in capital markets Christian Butler, notes that the dollar card became more expensive for Argentines who travel abroad, so many go to the blue in search of a better price. And there is less offer from foreigners who visit the country in the blue, who are beginning to use the cards more because it is convenient for them as a result of the provision that allows plastic issuers to apply the MEP exchange rate to these consumptions. .

financial dollars

The dollar Financial closed higher this Friday although he scored an uneven week. The Cash on Sale climbed $1.25 on Friday to close the day at $370.58. The gap with the wholesaler stepped on 100% and stood at 99.5%. During the week it grew $9.60, its lowest rise in three weeks, although it erased the fall of the first week of the year.

On the other hand, the MEP it was up $0.5 on the day to close at $352.78. Its gap with the wholesaler was 89.9%. During the week it was almost stable compared to last Friday since it only grew 26 cents. However, the MEP recorded six straight weeks of increases.

The week of the financiers was marked by the announcements of the Central Bank on passive rates. Thursday the Center announced a drop in the passive rates of the Mutual Investment Funds -FCI- to improve the relationship with the reference rate, after raising them at the beginning of the week after announcing a rise of 200 basis points in deposit rates for financial institutions.

The rate, which had risen to 68.4%, fell 7.2 percentage points and was finally located at 61.2%. In addition, Central reported that “it empowered financial entities to carry out stock-taking surety operations -passive- in pesos, in exchanges and markets authorized by the National Securities Commission.”

“The BCRA wants to maintain relatively high very short-term rates to mitigate the rise in financial dollars“said Portfolio Personal Investments.

“We believe that, just as It goes in the direction of containing the ‘MEP’ and the ‘CCL’ when remunerating the “short” pesos and make leverage more expensive, too reduces the premium to be placed in “long” instruments, such as a Fixed Term. This does nothing but make monetary aggregates more liquidwhich implies a risk of acceleration of nominality”he explained.

“It is difficult to predict what they can do (from the Government) because they are in a dead end,” said the financial analyst Salvador Vitelli. “We’re looking at a pretty lagging dollar,” she added.

bonds

After the announcement by the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa of a repurchase of foreign debt for about 1,000 million dollars to improve the debt profile, the bonds in the over-the-counter market operated with an improvement of 0.2% averagein a calm market and with some short profit taking after the recent rises led by dollarized issues.

“The parity of the (2030 bond) ‘AL30’ continues above 31% (31 dollars per bond) with a return required by the market of 34.5%”, said Rava Bursátil.

“It should be noted that this bond in dollars, issued under Argentine legislation, reached values ​​of 18 dollars per bond in October 2022 with an IRR (required return) of 52% and, since then, it has accumulated a price increase of more than 72%,” he said.

Actions

in the stock market The leading S&P Merval index lost 2.8% on Friday, to a close of 254,295.43 points before expected profit-taking, with which he ended a bullish streak of five wheels in which he had accumulated an improvement of 11.19%. Despite the drop registered on Friday, the S&P Merval posted its sixth week of straight growth.

Between the top losing stocks They stood out Central Puerto (-3.9%), Banco Macro (-3.9%) and Grupo Galicia (-3.9%). Only Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA) (+2.1%), Transportadora de Gas del Norte (+0.7%), Cresud (+0.4%) and Edenor (+0.4%) were able to advance slightly.

for his partArgentine ADRs they culminated in a majority of casualties on Wall Street. central port it led the daily drops with a decrease of 4.9%, followed by Grupo Galicia (-4%) and YPF (-4%).

Wall Street

wall street rose on Friday until score his fourth weekly upload in the threadafter it became known that the inflation of the United States slowed down and closed 2022 at 5%. This fueled expectations of a lower interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. In addition, credit card giant American Express rose m% on optimistic forecasts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%, at 33,978 points; the index S&P 500 improved 0.8%, at 4,070.56 units; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1%to 11,621 units.

The last round was marked by a renewed appetite for growth stocks and bullish prospects for Tesla, which shot up 11%although the Market sentiment was dampened by the cautious tone of companieswhich have signaled a difficult macroeconomic environment.

American Express Co advanced 10.5% after raising its 2023 profit forecast above Wall Street expectations, while its rival in the credit card market Visa Inc added 3% thanks to upbeat quarterly results.