The causes of the rise of the blue dollar
Since EcoGothe Economist Juan Delich points out that “the lower dollar offer blue in January tends to be a specific seasonal issue, but it is usually offset by a stronger initial demand for pesos due to vacations in the country.” However, that seems to be reversing earlier than usual this year, as that second trend tends to abate in Februarywhich is always a month of uptrend stronger for him Dolar blue.
Consequently, as explained by the economist from Epyca Consultores, Joel Lupieri, “Clearly there is a seasonal component that is reinforced with the fortnightly change, but he considers that this is compounded by the fact that the measures to repurchase debt and raise the repo rate for banks, which were announced last week, have probably lost some of their initial impact on the peso depreciation expectations” and that prompts the search for some coverage.
Likewise, the economist expert in capital markets Christian Butler, notes that the dollar card became more expensive for Argentines who travel abroad, so many go to the blue in search of a better price. And there is less offer from foreigners who visit the country in the blue, who are beginning to use the cards more because it is convenient for them as a result of the provision that allows plastic issuers to apply the MEP exchange rate to these consumptions .
The director of the consulting firm Analytica, Claudio Capraruloadds one last condiment also related to the issue: greater pressure on financial dollars, although he warns that “this is fueled by the drought and one less liquidation of exports, which usually occurs in January, February and March. These elements worsen the prospects for the entry of dollars into the country.
He mentions, on the other hand, that there was also a delay in the price of financiers and the Dolar blue that comes from last year, which could be generating a “recovery” effect at this time. However, he clarifies that, from Analytica “we do not see that the increase in the blue or the parallels is related to an expectation of a shock devaluation.”
Source: Ambito
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