The imbalances in the Argentine macroeconomy keep investors in suspense a few weeks before the mid-term legislative election that is considered key, after the ruling party was defeated in the primary elections held just over a month ago.
Under this scenario, and with the persistent volatility in world markets, Argentine bonds denominated in dollars lost up to 2.2%, so that the Argentine Country Risk it bounced 0.9% to 1,617 basis points.
The most marked losses among sovereign securities were recorded the Global 2038 (-2.2%); the Global 2041 (-1.8%); and the Global 2029 (-1.2%); and the Bonar 2035 (-1.2%), with which the yields reached a maximum of 22.5% (Bonar 2029). The weighted average price of the bonds closed at US $ 35.58, almost 9% below the levels reached after the PASO results.
Anxious, the market sees how, day after day, negotiations with the IMF remain stalled, as the government seeks more flexible conditions. On Monday, it even transpired, according to the Bloomberg agency, that the Fund’s board of directors rejected a request from Argentina to discuss the relief of surcharges. that the country pays for its record loan taken on by the government headed by Mauricio Macri. In any case, the Argentine government denied the information.
“The news about the IMF complicates the government that delayed negotiations with the aim of reducing financing costs and eventually obtaining more favorable conditions for a next agreement,” They said from Portfolio Personal Inversiones. “The expectation of further delaying the agreement or that it does not bring too many demands in the macro is reflected in the prices of the bonds,” they added.
The Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, he met this Tuesday in Washington with the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, in the framework of the renegotiation of the debt program.
In the peso segment, on the other hand, movements were mixed among CER bonds, awaiting inflation data this Thursday. The CPI for September would be 2.8% according to the last REM published (vs 2.7% expected in August). Although some private consultants began to speak of a figure closer to 3 / 3.3%.
Meanwhile, dollar securities linkedoperated takers, gaining 0.3% along the curve, “making it very difficult at times to get good offers, especially in the long section,” they commented on the market.
S&P Merval y ADRs
In equities, the Buenos Aires stock market rose slightly, hand in hand with energy and financial papers, in line with the recent rises in ADRs on Wall Street.
The leading index S&P Merval de Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA) it gained 0.5%, to 77,927.87 points, after being stable the previous week.
The most important rises of the day were recorded by the papers of Pampa Energía (+ 7.7%); from Transportadora de Gas del Norte (+ 5%); and Central Puerto (+ 4.2%). Energy stocks advanced strongly on Wall Street yesterday, rising in double digits in some cases.
The volume traded in shares rose 25% to $ 1,022.8 million, representing only 25% of the total traded in equities (the Cedears registered a volume of $ 3,044 million).
The increase in energy takes place in a context of energy supply crisis and generalized rise in energy prices globally, particularly in natural gas and oil for reasons ranging from increased demand due to the economic recovery and the end of the restrictions of the pandemic, until unusually low seasons for the generation of alternative energies in Europe or problems in the US markets due to the impact of the recent Hurricane Ida.
Regarding Pampa Energía, with 6% of natural gas production, “It is one of the main producers in Argentina and in turn focuses a large part of its business on the oil industry through its subsidiary Petrolera Pampa, so this global context is not alien to the company. of the last day was remarkable, we can see a strong upward trend that increased in mid-September that marks a rise of more than 20% to date “, commented Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL.
In recent weeks, renowned stocks in the sector globally such as ExxonMobil or Chevron Corporation, posted increases of more than 15% since the last days of September. If we focus on stocks of less renown and capitalization, Vista Oil & Gas had a profit of more than 50% in the last days of September, or Tenaris that has done the same in almost 20% in the last month, explained Donzelli.
This Tuesday, for its part, the ADRs of Argentine companies they closed with the majority of increases, which in some cases reached 3%, such as Globant. The podium was completed by the papers of IRSA Propiedades Comerciales (+ 2.8%); and Supervielle (+1,8%). On the contrary, among the few casualties of the day Edenor’s assets stood out (-9.5%); and Central Puerto (-5.9%).
On the New York Stock Exchange, the main indices closed lower before the start of the earnings season on Wednesday, and with investors’ concern about inflation in the US. The Dow Jones lost 0.3%, the Nasdaq 0.1%; and the S & P500 expanded index, 0.2%.
Caution prevailed among investors and long rates gave way: lUS10Y fell 4 points to close at 1.57%. Meanwhile, oil prices remained at their highest in the last seven years (around US $ 80.5 per barrel). “Expectations of higher inflation remain latent and the market awaits signals about the next steps in monetary policy. This Wednesday the publication of the minutes of the September FED meeting will be key, along with inflation data in the US and retail sales, “they remarked from Personal Portfolio.
Also this Wednesday, the balance sheet season begins: with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BofA and Goldman Sachs, banks are the first to announce their quarterly results.
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