“With this rate of devaluation for the peso, if the holding is maintained to follow the inflationthe devaluation expectations that Bank Of America anticipates for this year would be confirmed”, says the economist Federico Glustein.
The political leg, a key element
According to the economist, if inflation is 90%, it will reach that value, and it will even have a few more points to play for. Likewise, he considers that it is very likely that it will be necessary to see what the new government does and what is the policy that it will carry out.
The strongest jump foreseen by the Bank of America it would occur in the last quarter of the year, between September and December, coinciding with the electoral contest that will take place in Argentina this year, when it would go from $273 to $373 in just three months. While in previous quarters they project an average increase of $30 for each three-month period.
other predictions
However, according to the monthly report of LatinFocus Consensus Forecast for February, which brings together the forecast of 50 local and foreign banks and economic consultancies for the movement of the wholesaler, it will close the year at $342.70, which represents an increase of $150 over the next 12 months, below the $180 jump Bank Of America anticipates, but above January’s report, when they pegged the dollar at $341, an increase of more than $6 from the previous month .
Regarding inflation, according to the economists, the year will end with an accumulated inflation of 97% once again, far from the government’s forecast of 60% according to the National Budget.. This is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
These adjustments respond to the variations that are being seen in the Argentine economy, which make analysts have to constantly review their forecasts for the country.
We will have to see how the inflation/wholesale exchange rate relationship develops this year, but without a doubt, as pointed out by Bank of America, the electoral process, which begins with the PASO in August, it will be a litmus test in that sense, just as it happened in 2019.
Source: Ambito
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